- Jordan and Egypt have said they won't take in Palestinian refugees from Gaza.
- Experts on the Middle East told Insider that economic and security reasons are at play.
- They also don't want to be seen as complicit in the displacement of Palestinians, the experts said.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has raised humanitarian concerns about the fate of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza, particularly as Israeli retaliatory strikes continue and a ground incursion seems imminent.
On October 7, Hamas launched its terror attacks on Israel, which killed more than 1,300 people, according to the Israel Defense Forces. At least 3,785 Palestinians have been killed since Israel's retaliations began, according to the health ministry in Gaza.
A ground war would dramatically increase the death toll.
Despite expectations that neighboring Arab nations with deep ties to Palestinians might provide refuge, both Jordan and Egypt have unequivocally stated that they will not accept refugees.
"There will be no refugees in Jordan and no refugees in Egypt," said Jordanian King Abdullah II this week, declaring it a "red line" that would not be crossed.
Egypt's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry also said on Tuesday that Egypt would not host any more Palestinian refugees, citing the economic "burden" and not wanting to solely bear the "responsibility" of taking them in.
Three experts on the region, who spoke to Insider, highlighted the complexity of Egypt and Jordan's positions.
The economic repercussions of an influx of refugees
Last week, Israel's military gave an evacuation order to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza City to flee further south into the Gaza Strip.
Now, there is an increased concentration of Palestinians in southern Gaza, close to the currently closed Rafah border crossing into Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.
This situation could lead to an influx of refugees into Egypt, as Palestinians seek safety in the neighboring country amid the ongoing conflict, said Hasan Al Momani, a professor at the University of Jordan who specializes in conflict management, in a conversation with Insider.
Similarly, there are concerns that an escalation in the conflict could lead to an expansion involving the West Bank, potentially prompting Palestinians to move eastward toward Jordan, Al Momani said.
He explained that Jordanian decision-makers will likely have made an assessment that there could be "hundreds of thousands of people moving to Jordan" — a country that already has a huge refugee population.
Jordan hosts the second-largest number of refugees per capita worldwide, many of whom live in camps, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
It is also the country that hosts the largest number of Palestinian refugees, according to Amnesty International.
"No way does Jordan want to be landed with more refugees," said Al Momani. "They simply don't believe they can afford it. They also can't afford it politically."
In Egypt, where the Minister of Foreign Affairs said the country would struggle with the economic burden of an influx of refugees, there is talk of some sort of financial deal to soften the blow.
Chris Doyle, the director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, told Insider that it would have to be a pretty compelling offer for Egypt to agree.
"The aid money from the United States and others may come in the first year or two," he said. "But, as we've seen with Syrian refugees, donor programs there, before long it all gets underfunded."
But money isn't everything, Doyle said, there's also another major consideration for Egyptian and Jordanian politicians: not being seen as aiding the displacement of Palestinian people.
Not being seen as complicit in Palestinian displacement
"Palestinians themselves, of course, are very wary about fleeing to Egypt, because 70% of the population of Gaza are refugees," said Doyle.
He added that many have a "bitter historical experience" of not being allowed to return to their homes.
This has created a situation where many fear that if they leave their homes they may become permanent refugees abroad, Doyle said.
This fear of being displaced is a significant "feature of the Palestinian condition," Lex Takkenberg, who worked with the UN on Palestinian refugees for three decades and is now a senior advisor for the Jordan-based Arab Renaissance for Democracy and Development, told Insider.
Many of the Palestinians who live in Jordan, Egypt, and elsewhere in the region first arrived there after being displaced in 1948, or following the Six-Day War in 1967.
"If you look at it purely from a humanitarian angle, you know a temporary displacement into Sinai would make the delivery of humanitarian assistance much, much easier," said Takkenberg. "But, on the other hand, we know it would not be temporary."
He said that it is against this backdrop that Egypt and Jordan would not want to be seen accepting displaced Palestinians because "they don't want to be complicit to another Nakba."
(Nakba, which means "catastrophe" in Arabic, is a Palestinian term referring to their mass displacement following the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.)
Egyptian politicians have said as much.
Mustafa Bakri, an Egyptian MP, told Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV last week that Egypt "has warned both Israel and other international parties that it will fight any efforts to try and resettle Palestinians in the Sinai," according to Voice of America News.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said on Wednesday that Egyptians in their millions would reject the "forced displacement" of Palestinians into Sinai.
Security concerns
If Palestinians were to flee to Sinai, this could cause "dramatic instability" in the region, which Egyptians do not want, Takkenberg said.
"Egypt has already been struggling with ISIS elements in Sinai and other extremists," he added.
Since 2011, the Egyptian military and police have battled ISIS-affiliated militants. The fear is that incoming Hamas militants could bring further instability to the region.
Sisi also generally views Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, suspiciously, with Cairo considering it a potential security threat.
"So this is the last thing Sisi wants, both from a security perspective and from a political perspective," said Takkenberg.
But, ultimately, Takkenberg said, understanding Jordan and Egypt's firm stances requires an overall appreciation of the context.
He said: "You cannot understand the Palestinian refugee question while not at the same time also understanding the broader historical, political, and legal circumstances surrounding the issue."
All of which leaves those in Gaza in a very precarious position.