Winstalarm en fusiegeruchten
Een rommelige start van de dag vandaag met veel bedrijfsnieuws.
Waarschuwingen van Philips
en Siemens,
in fusie- en overnameland wordt gekeken naar een mogelijke fusie tussen de
Duitse energiereuzen RWE
en E.ON en een alliantie tussen Fiat
en Peugeot, de Chinese beurswaakhond wil dat mensen meer
in aandelen gaan beleggen, enzovoorts. En er is nog wat macro-nieuws,
maar het belangrijkste nieuws van vanochtend komt uit de financiële sector.
Steun ECB werkt
Er zijn wat ogenschijnlijke tegenstrijdige berichten, maar in
grote-getallen-land winnen de Centrale Banken en lijkt de situatie wat te
verbeteren.
De ECB helpt de banken de winter door:
“ECB Moves Lower Dollar Funding Costs For European Banks."
"The European Central Bank’s moves to make it easier for European banks
to get dollar funding appear to have worked.
An indicator showing the cost of borrowing dollars by lending euros has
tightened to levels last seen in October: the three-month euro dollar cross
currency basis swap is quoted at minus 96.5 basis points from minus 114
basis points at the end of 2011, according to ICAP via CQG. The narrowing of
the swap is all the more remarkable given that other indicators of stress in
Europe’s financial system are on the rise.” (bron: Dow Jones, geen link)
Italianen lenen fors bij ECB
Die hulp was nodig ook trouwens:
"ECB WATCH: Italian, Belgian Banks’ Borrowing Surges In December"
"The dependence of euro-zone banks on the European Central Bank came
under the spotlight again Monday, as new data showed banks in Italy, Belgium
and Portugal all leaning more and more heavily on it for support in
December.
The data come as no great surprise, after the Eurosystem’s overall lending
ballooned by a third as a result of the ECB’s first-ever offer of three-year
credit operation, but confirmed the unpleasant suspicion that the financial
crisis is spreading to banks that had ridden out the first two years of the
crisis unscathed.
Data from the Bank of Italy showed domestic banks’ use of the ECB’s credit
windows leaped by another EUR 57 billion in December to EUR 210 billion,
after rising by EUR 42 billion already in November. That means that over 6%
of all Italian banking assets are now being refinanced at the ECB, up from
under 1% at the start of 2010."(bron: wsj, geen link)
Terwijl de banken en beleggers bereid zijn te betalen voor zekerheid:
"Germany
Auctions Bills With Negative Yield Amid Debt Crisis."
"Germany sold six-month treasury bills at a negative yield for the first
time amid demand for the debt securities of Europe’s biggest economy as a
haven from the sovereign debt crisis roiling the region.
Franse banken happen toe
Maken sommige banken gretig gebruik van de soepelere regels omtrent
onderpand:
"French
banks cash in"
"Financial markets paid little attention when the European Central Bank
announced in September that from 2012 it would accept a wider range of bank
bonds to back cash loans. Perhaps investors should have listened more
closely.
It turns out the easier collateral terms may provide a lifeline to French
banks – a lifeline being ignored by investors. The ECB quietly increased the
list of collateral it would accept by more than a third at the start of the
year.
Almost all the 10,599 debt instruments it added were from banks – and more
than 8,000 of them from French banks. Furthermore, French banks also
dominate the list of newly eligible instruments created since the rules were
announced.
This smacks of desperation at the French banks. Already some Irish and Greek
banks have run out of eligible collateral and had to turn to their national
central banks. If French banks hit the same problem, it would be a disaster.
Yet, the piling up of collateral ought to ease worries about France’s banks
being squeezed by a liquidity crunch, as Lorcan Roche Kelly at Trend Macro
points out. Far from running out of collateral, the French banks now appear
to have an almost unlimited line of credit at the ECB."
Uitgifte aandelen precair
Zolang banken geen nieuwe aandelen hoeven uit te geven, is er weinig aan de
hand. Maar de laatste ontwikkelingen bij UniCredit uit Italië tonen aan dat
als je wel moet plaatsen, je mag hopen dat je in een land zit waar het
short-gaan (speculeren op koersdaling, red) niet verboden is.
Want om te profiteren van een discount (aandelen via een emissie bijkopen
onder de marktprijs, red), is een veelgebruikte strategie: short aandelen
(inspelen op koersdaling, red), long rights (inspelen op stijging kooprecht
nieuwe aandelen, red), waardoor er op gegeven moment een bodem ligt in de
korting. In Italië geldt een verbod op short gaan (speculeren op
koersdaling, red.) Een tsja, die de aandelenemissie van UniCredit loopt niet
echt lekker:
Italy's
Once-Mighty UniCredit May Face A Tiny Future
"UniCredit SpA risks becoming the latest high-profile victim of Europe's
sovereign debt crisis if it fails to win back market confidence soon,
possibly facing a breakup that would see the global ambitions of former
Chief Executive Alessandro Profumo in tatters, bankers say.
The Italian bank is already unrecognizable from the major international
business Profumo built from a small regional player less than seven years
ago. Its market capitalization peaked at above EUR100 billion but now hovers
around the EUR 4.5 billion mark.
The shares have lost close to half their value since the middle of last week
alone when UniCredit announced a heavily discounted offer price for its
EUR7.5 billion rights issue. The decline of the past few days has been so
sharp that traders now say the previously cheap offer looks pricey relative
to UniCredit's current share price.
One senior investment banker, who declined to be named, said a breakup could
soon become an option if the rights issue fails and tensions on the euro
continue to increase. This is UniCredit's third plan to boost capital in as
many years and one that until recently its executives denied was needed."
Da’s niet al te fijn voor andere banken die willen plaatsen:
UniCredit
Plunge Seen Deterring EU Banks From Selling Shares
"A 45 percent drop in UniCredit SpA shares since Italy’s biggest bank
announced a rights offer last week may deter European lenders from asking
stockholders for help to meet requirements that they replenish capital."
Maar als gezegd: het positieve gevoel door de iets verbeterde markten
overheerst vandaag.
Griekenland
Het is maar een kleine economie in Europa, maar omdat het zoveel aandacht
heeft gekregen (en omdat er toch aardig wat in gehandeld is), even de
laatste updates over de Griekse posities.
Dat er afgeschreven moest worden op de Griekse staatsleningen is duidelijk,
alleen wat het gevolg zou zijn voor de Credit Default Swap-afrekeningen
(verzekeringen tegen wanbetaling, red.) was nog niet bekend. En verder moet
er nog een deal komen natuurlijk. Enfin – dit zijn de relevante news-items:
Greek
Bailout in Peril
Germany and France on Monday pressed Greece and its bondholders to agree on a
reduction of Athens's debt burden, warning that Greece's bailout loans from
the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund are on hold until a deal
is reached with private investors.
Holders
of Greek Debt To Face Requests For New Concessions
IMF’s
Blanchard Says Greek Haircuts ‘Could Have to Be Larger ’
Greece
To Introduce Retroactive Collective Action Clauses-Source
"The Greek government will retroactively introduce collective-action
clauses (CACs)_ to its existing bonds, a source from the troika of Greece's
creditors - the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and
the European Union - told Dow Jones Newswires Monday.
According to the troika official, Greece will retrofit the bonds with CACs to
gain leverage but will not necessarily use them to bind in bondholders
resisting the ongoing restructuring negotiations."
En het meest interessante item over Griekenland van vandaag:
Threat Of Collective Action Clause On Greek Debt Not Enough To Trigger CDS
"Concerns about the predictability of insurance covering Greek sovereign
debt resurfaced Monday amid reports that the Greek government may introduce
collective action clauses on its existing domestic-law bonds to raise
participation in the nation's debt exchange.
The insertion of a collective action clause by itself would not trigger
payouts on insurance sold in the form of credit default swaps, or CDS,
several derivatives lawyers told Dow Jones Newswires. But the use of the
clause likely would trigger CDS contracts for payouts, they added.
Collective action clauses can force a change to bond terms on all holders so
long as a minimum percentage of holders, say 75%, agree to a change.
And under credit derivatives market rules, any deal that is "binding on
all holders," including holders that voted against the change, would be
sufficient to trigger payouts. But putting the clause in place and not using
it would not be sufficient to force payouts to CDS buyers, the lawyers said. "It
would be a bargaining chip--like a poker bluff," one explained.
"The fact that someone is threatening to use a clause, which if it were
used binds all holders, is different to something that constitutes an act."
"Just adding the clause doesn't trigger CDS," another lawyer
agreed.
News of Greece's consideration of collective action clauses follows months of
debate on the reliability of CDS-contracts. Investors have criticized CDS
for being an imperfect hedge for sovereign debt because of the range of
scenarios that would fail to result in payouts to protection holders. (bron:
Dow Jones, geen link)
Als er toch uitgekeerd gaat worden op de Griekse kredietverzekeringen is dat
goed nieuws voor de instituten die hun Griekse obligaties hebben afgedekt
met die instrumenten. Goed voor het sentiment bij sommige verzekeraars en
dus voor het sentiment op de markten.
Jacob Jurg is verbonden aan AFS en
verantwoordelijk voor nieuws en research. De informatie in deze
column bevat geen individueel beleggingsadvies of aanbeveling tot het doen
van bepaalde beleggingen.
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