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Welcome back! Remember the chicken sandwich wars between fast-food restaurants a few years ago? Chicken tenders are the new battleground, and casual dining chains and chicken brands are getting in on what's viewed as a big business opportunity.
In today's big story, the first of our five-part refresher series on the potential impact Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. First up: your investments.
What's on deck:
- Markets: JPMorgan is adding junior bankers in preparation for an M&A frenzy.
- Tech: Apple has a lot on the line this week.
- Business: Two giant newspapers trying to avoid the political fray created an even bigger mess.
But first, how's my portfolio looking?
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The big story
Voting for stocks
They say the stakes have never been higher for this year's election. The same could be said for the impact on your investment portfolio.
Business Insider's Matthew Fox detailed how Wall Street sees former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris affecting the investment landscape if they win the White House.
The story is part of a five-part refresher series BI compiled for election season's final days. The goal is to help readers understand the impact both candidates could have on US consumers. Each day, we'll have a new story unpacking a different area.
The economy is always a key focus for voters, and the strength or weakness of financial markets significantly influences how people view it.
One of the biggest areas where Harris and Trump differ is their proposed tax policies, which are believed to have big impacts on stocks.
According to Bank of America, Trump's plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% will boost earnings by 4%. On the other hand, Harris is looking to raise that tax rate to 28%, which would lead to a 5% earnings hit, according to the bank.
Trump's universal tariffs proposal is also viewed as having a big impact. His supporters say it's a pro-business move that will boost corporate growth and deals. Critics say it'll raise inflation, which will drag stocks down.
Sometimes, the impact isn't as straightforward as it might seem.
Trump's pro-drilling stance might be viewed as a win for the energy sector. But that could lead to oversupply and lower prices, BNY Wealth said. And under Trump's previous presidential campaign, energy was the worst-performing sector.
While Democrats largely favor wind and solar energy, the clean-energy sector has tanked under President Joe Biden after skyrocketing during Trump's tenure. (It has outperformed more recently as Harris made gains in election polls.)
Others believe it might not matter to the markets who wins. Artificial intelligence remains the market's major force, driving the most volatility for stocks.
Another corner of the market, albeit much less cutting-edge, is incredibly hot and positioned to keep thriving: gold. The metal hit all-time highs last week and has outperformed stock prices since October 2022.
The precious metal has benefited recently from a trifecta of bullish forces: the Fed's rate cut, rising geopolitical tensions, and the prospect of an inflationary Trump presidency. But it's a good bet no matter who wins the election, according to Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick.
News brief
Top headlines
- He gave up everything to fight for Ukraine. His family is still trying to figure out why.
- VMware customers are seeing massive late fees since Broadcom acquired the company.
- Reddit's CEO sees an opening against Google on search.
- Tiger Grandcubs on AI: How investors Dan Sundheim and Mala Gaonkar are thinking about investing in the space.
- Tesla is offering a Cybertruck accessory that it can't fully install.
3 things in markets
- The US economy avoided a crash, but it's not out of the woods. Economist Neil Dutta said a weakening job market remains a risk for the economy. He pointed to the growing number of consumers viewing jobs as being hard to come by versus those that think they are plentiful, and drops in hiring and quit rates.
- JPMorgan: Young bankers wanted. The largest US bank is looking to add investment banking analysts and associates despite the fourth quarter typically being slow for bank hiring. The recruitment comes ahead of the expected resurgence of M&A activity.
- Wall Street has been tasked with determining OpenAI's worth. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly working on establishing a valuation for the startup as part of its potential shift to a for-profit company. Here's what that lengthy, complex process would look like.
3 things in tech
- X still marks the spot. Some Twitter users mourned the social media platform after Elon Musk acquired it and renamed it X. In response, various challengers have attempted to rival X, but none have been able to knock the platform off its throne.
- It's a big week for Apple. In addition to reporting earnings on Thursday, Apple is expected to introduce software and hardware updates to its tech lineup this week. Its long-awaited Apple Intelligence is scheduled to launch with iOS 18.1. Plus, a marketing exec teased something new for Macs.
- VCs are breaking a long-standing taboo. Venture firms have long adhered to an unspoken rule: Don't invest in competitors. However, that norm is disappearing as investors pour billions into competing LLMs like Anthropic and OpenAI.
3 things in business
- The end of American careerism. Rather than climb the corporate ladder, workers are now choosing to descend it. A promotion was once the pinnacle of the American dream, but many professionals are turning them down — and no longer deem the trade-offs worth it.
- Elon Musk is going "founder mode" for MAGA. The Tesla CEO's all-in intensity to get Donald Trump elected reflects how he runs his companies. He's spent just under $119 million on his pro-Trump PAC and shows no signs of slowing down — though it's unclear whether it will make a difference at the ballot.
- Sometimes, saying nothing is still saying something. The Washington Post and the LA Times just stepped into a bigger political mess than the one they tried to avoid. The billionaire-owned papers said they wouldn't endorse a political candidate in the final days before the election. Some, including those within the newsrooms, interpreted the moves as pandering to Donald Trump. Michele Norris, a columnist at The Washington Post, is the latest staffer to resign over the newspaper's decision.
What's happening today
- Ford Motors and other companies report earnings.
- The MLB World Series continues with the LA Dodgers at New York Yankees.
- Forbes publishes its "Top Creators" list of most powerful influencers.
The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.