- Up to 70% of Ukrainians could live in poverty in 2022, up from 18% in 2021, the World Bank said.
- Without a large support package, over 60% would be below the national poverty line in 2025, it added.
- Russia's invasion has obliterated livelihoods and crushed large parts of Ukraine's industry.
The proportion of Ukrainians living below the country's national poverty line could reach 70% this year, up from 18% in 2021, the World Bank has said.
And if there isn't a "massive" post-war support package, more than 60% of Ukrainians would still have an income below the national poverty line by 2025, the World Bank said in its spring report, released Sunday.
Based on the international upper middle-income poverty line, which is $5.50 a day, poverty is projected to increase more than tenfold to 19.8% in 2022, up from 1.8% in 2021, the World Bank said. In a worst-case scenario, 28% of Ukrainians could be living under the $5.50 a day mark in 2022, the UN Development Program (UNDP) said.
People have lost access to food, water, electricity, heating, and gas. By April 11, nearly $30 billion worth of residential buildings, almost 600 educational institutions, and 205 medical institutions had been damaged, destroyed, or seized, per the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE).
"The poverty and social impacts of the war will be massive," the World Bank said. "A major reconstruction effort will be necessary."
KSE estimated that Russia has caused $80.4 billion worth of damage to Ukraine's physical infrastructure since its invasion began on February 24. It noted, however, that this was a low estimate and the true losses were likely to be much higher. The World Bank said that damage to Ukraine's infrastructure was likely to be well in excess of $100 billion.
Including indirect losses, such as reduced investment and an outflow of labor, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has cost as much as $600 billion, according to estimates from Ukraine's economy ministry and the KSE.
The invasion has crushed large parts of Ukraine's industry. The World Bank said economic activity was now "impossible in large swathes" of Ukraine because of the infrastructure damage, and predicted that the country's economy would shrink by 45% in 2022.
Goods trade has come to a "grinding halt" because of damage to transit routes and total exports are expected to shrink by 80% in 2022, the bank said. The loss of access to the Black Sea alone cut off half of Ukraine's exports and 90% of its grain trade, it said.
Half of Ukrainian businesses have shut down completely, while the rest are operating well below capacity, Oleg Ustenko, chief economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said on March 10.
The World Bank said the loss of production, exports, and human capital were expected to have "lasting economic and social repercussions."
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin's former chief economic adviser said the number of Russians in poverty could triple in the wake of the war.