- Ukraine's future in NATO is up in the air, leaving neither Putin nor Zelenskyy happy.
- Russia has long opposed Ukraine joining NATO, citing it as a reason for its February 2022 invasion.
- Meanwhile, Zelenskyy has expressed frustration and disappointment over NATO's timeline for Ukraine's membership.
After this week's NATO summit in Lithuania, it appears that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin may have something in common: They're both unhappy with Ukraine's relationship with NATO, albeit for very different reasons.
This year's summit was a hefty one, with member nations mostly focused on continued support and aid for Ukraine — but with the roadmap to membership for the wartorn country looking longer and more complicated, it's unclear if Zelenskyy will walk away satisfied.
He certainly didn't seem thrilled on arrival day, either.
On Tuesday, Zelenskyy blasted the West for a lack of "readiness neither to invite Ukraine to NATO nor to make it a member of the Alliance."
"It's unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine's membership. While at the same time vague wording about 'conditions' is added even for inviting Ukraine," he tweeted, adding the West's hesitancy and lack of a clear timeline left a "window of opportunity" for bargaining "Ukraine's membership in NATO in negotiations with Russia."
"And for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror," Zelenskyy said.
The statement is likely in response to vague wording in the alliance's annual communiqué, which recommits NATO's support to Ukraine but also foregoes a roadmap or timetable for Kyiv to gain membership.
Instead, Ukraine is at the mercy of "when Allies agree and conditions are met."
That "when" marks the end of war with Russia. Admitting Ukraine into NATO while the war continues would trigger the entire alliance joining the fight — and while the West continues to funnel billions of dollars of aid to Kyiv and send advanced Abrams and Leopard tanks and Storm Shadow missiles for their long-awaited counteroffensive, an actual declaration of war against Russia is apparently a step too far.
Russian opposition to Ukraine joining NATO traces back to the alliance's creation
Russia has long opposed Ukraine — or any former Soviet Union nations — joining NATO out of a fear the Western alliance will suffocate Russia.
Although multiple efforts like the NATO-Russia Founding Act and the NATO-Russia Council were made to bridge the gap, Russia has repeatedly accused the US and NATO of violating a mutual trust and flooding the former Soviet bloc with their influence.
At NATO's 2008 Bucharest summit, tension reached a watermark when NATO announced its intentions to admit Georgia and Ukraine — while there was no roadmap for membership, the very thought pushed Putin to draw a line in the sand.
"No Russian leader could stand idly by in the face of steps toward NATO membership for Ukraine. That would be a hostile act toward Russia," he told William J. Burns, former US undersecretary for political affairs.
Flashing forward past Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and to its February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin's ramped up his rhetoric against Ukraine's membership in NATO.
"Why was it necessary to make an enemy out of us?" he bemoaned, according to The New York Times' translation of his pre-invasion speech. "They didn't want such a large, independent country as Russia. In this lies the answer to all questions."
"We clearly understand that in such a scenario, the degree of military threat to Russia will rise cardinally, by multiple times," Putin said, adding that Ukraine remains "not just a neighboring country" but instead "an integral part of our own history, culture, spiritual space."
Putin certainly didn't anticipate his plans to swiftly invade Ukraine and decapitate Kyiv would fail, and after 500 days of war, his military appears weaker than ever and NATO's alliance stronger.
But Ukraine is still at the whim of the West. And although Zelenskyy softened his criticism of the alliance's membership plans by the end of the summit, the war is dragging on — and Ukraine's NATO future is murky.