- Ukraine needs its F-16s, but it should get Gripen jets to help fight Russia long-term, experts said.
- They're rugged, flexible, and designed with a Russia fight in mind.
- Sweden's "Gripens were designed for this fight much better" than F-16s, one expert said.
Ukraine has US-made F-16s and a promise of French Mirages, capable weapons that it needs now, but Sweden's Gripen, a jet made for the Russian threat, is an ideal choice for the country's future fighter fleet.
"Gripens are a way better fit for Ukraine" than F-16s," said Michael Bohnert, an air warfare expert at the RAND Corporation. "The Gripen is a little more purpose-built" for Ukraine's needs.
A more flexible jet
The JAS 39 Gripen, made by Swedish aerospace and defense company Saab AB, was designed to operate from civilian roads in the event that runways and airbases are destroyed. This is something the F-16 can do, too, and has done, but the Gripen is a more rugged aircraft better suited for that.
The jet is one Ukraine wants but has been unable to acquire.
They're made to operate from improvised runways "because Sweden, being under that Russian threat, designed the Gripens to fight this way that F-16s weren't," Bohnert said. F-16s have special requirements, like long and smooth runways and protective hangars.
Russia has been targeting Ukrainian air bases suitable for F-16s. "If you're right under somebody's shadow, you need to be able to operate from roads," Bohnert said.
The emerging missile threat has led nations farther away to look into the practice as well. The US and its partners in Europe have been training with increasing regularity for dispersed air operations using highways as improvised runways for combat aircraft like the F-35, Eurofighter, A-10, and others.
The Gripen, designed at the end of the Cold War and built to defeat Russia's highly maneuverable Sukhoi fighter aircraft, is considered among the better fourth-generation fighters and is regarded as an excellent jet for these kinds of operations.
Retired US Army Maj. Gen. Gordon "Skip" Davis, who served as NATO's deputy assistant secretary-general for its Defense Investment Division, told BI that Swedens' Gripens have "a number of advantages" that benefit Ukraine and would likely work well with the dispersal tactics Ukraine has been employing since the start of the war to keep Russians from destroying its smaller air force.
The jet's flexibility makes it "much better for a country that's bordering an aggressor," Bohnert said. "You'll probably get more effectiveness out of an F-16 against Russia out of Germany, whereas the Gripen will get more capability out of Ukraine or some other bordering country."
The Gripen is also a lighter maintenance lift than some other aircraft, the F-16 included.
Experts at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute wrote in 2022 that of available Western aircraft that could be supplied, the Gripen "offers by far the most suitable candidate in terms of operational requirements. It was designed from the outset for ease of maintenance, and can be refuelled, re-armed and given basic maintenance by teams of just six ground crew using two vehicles on small airbases or highways in cold weather."
"Moreover," they added, "only one of each crew needs to be a highly trained maintainer; the rest can be conscripts or even troops."
The greater demands for F-16 operations mean that even if the Ukrainians were promised far more of the jets, there is no guarantee it would be able to put all of them in the air.
Designed against Russia
Sweden has long seen Russia as a threat, and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 majorly elevated those concerns, prompting Sweden to join NATO. The Gripen is built for that threat and delivers certain capabilities beyond the F-16 or Mirage.
The then-commander of Sweden's air force, Mats Helgesson, said in 2019 that the Gripen was "designed to kill Sukhois."
Gordon noted the Gripen's electronic warfare capabilities, characterizing it as a "big advantage," as well as the jet's small radar signature and its maneuverability in a dogfight. The Gripen can also be equipped with very long-range air-to-air missiles.
A potential transition
Sweden appears to be inching closer to giving Ukraine the jets but still seems a long way off from committing any.
Gordon said the Gripens would be useful for Ukraine now, but "unless Sweden makes a quick decision to start training pilots and offering the aircraft, then they're not going to make a difference the next year and for 2025. So they may more be a good idea for cost and maintenance and employment for a post-conflict."
The Gripen could be a good alternative if US support suddenly collapsed, but for the time being, Ukraine has its hands full building an F-16 fleet and the approaching task of integrating Mirages into its air force, which Sweden has noted.
But Ukraine's long-term defense needs will almost certainly center on Russia, which will be a threat to Ukraine no matter how this war ends. That makes the Swedish Gripen a worthwhile consideration for its long-term fighter needs.
Ukraine's future air force
Air warfare experts have described Ukraine's acquisition of its first F-16s as the beginning of building Ukraine's long-term air force.
US officials have also described it as a long-term project, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin saying last year that the US would lead a coalition focused on increasing the Ukrainian air force's ability to defend itself against Russia in the long run.
The Gripen is good, but the F-16 is probably the best option right now.
As the most popular Western fighter, there are many more jets and spare parts allies could choose to give Ukraine, Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at the UK's Royal Aeronautical Society, told BI.
There are also far fewer countries that operate Gripens, and not all of them support Ukraine. The Gripen has also never seen combat, so the jet's celebrated capabilities are, for now, theoretical.
The F-16 is, on the other hand, a combat-proven aircraft and still a key element of American and allied airpower, even amid the transition to fifth-generation fighters.
"It's just that Gripens were designed for this fight much better," Bohnert said. But right now, Ukraine just needs jets, making F-16s a solid choice for the time being.