- Trump’s new tariffs give China room to play the foil to the US and bolster its hold on the region.
- Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar hold great strategic value for China as it seeks to expand its influence.
- On Friday, China responded to Trump’s tariffs with a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the US.
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs are expected to cut deep against both friend and foe, but several of the nations that stand to suffer the most are right on China’s doorstep.
Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are on track to face tariff rates of 49%, 48%, and 45%, respectively.
All three have maintained close economic and political ties with China, which must itself contend with a total tariff rate of 54% — the highest out of anywhere in the world. China’s response was swift: On Friday, Beijing retaliated against Trump’s tariffs with a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the US.
Only Lesotho, Madagascar, and Vietnam, which the US is targeting with rates of 50%, 47%, and 46%, have to deal with a higher or equal level of import taxes.
Analysts and researchers who study the area told Business Insider the tariffs will likely push China’s allies closer to Beijing, giving Chinese leader Xi Jinping an opportunity to strengthen his hold on a region that his country greatly values.
"Strategically, the US is now handing a victory to China in the US-China competition," said Vina Nadjibulla, the vice president of research and strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.
"If the US is preoccupied with competing with China, it is ceding ground and losing influence by essentially making China the only possible alternative for many of these economies," she added.
The White House, US Treasury Department, and US State Department did not respond to requests for comment from BI for this story.
Is Trump punishing ties to China?
While many of the nations at the top of the tariff list hold close ties with Beijing, US allies are hit, too.
"Traditional US allies such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and even Australia were all subject to these tariffs," said Baogang He, a professor of international relations at Deakin University in Melbourne, Australia.
Trump's rates appear to be tied to US trade deficits with each country, though the president has characterized the tariffs as reciprocal to taxes imposed by those nations.
"The rates are all about trade deficits," said Emily Kilcrease, a senior fellow who studies the US-China relationship for the Center for a New American Security.
Cambodia's export surplus to the US is worth $12.34 billion, Laos' is worth $760 million, and Myanmar's is worth $580 million.
Ian Bremmer, the founder and president of Eurasia Group, said at the World Economic Forum in January that he foresaw Trump targeting China through third-party countries that Beijing is using to manufacture goods to be shipped to the US.
"The only way the Chinese economy is succeeding right now is through their $1 trillion export surplus," Bremmer said at the time. "And so you see Trump and his team focusing a lot on Mexico, and India, and Vietnam. The other conversations they are having bilaterally, one of the top priorities is: squeeze China coming in. That's very hard for China to respond to."
Bremmer told BI on Thursday that he stands by his earlier comments.
"Absolutely. And the Chinese government has felt the same way about the United States pushing Mexico hard on getting Chinese pass-through trade out of the economy," Bremmer said.
Countries such as Mexico, Cambodia, and Vietnam have been key players in a manufacturing network known as "China+1," which emerged in response to Trump's restrictions on Chinese exports during his first administration.
To circumvent those measures, Chinese firms diversified their supply chains by sending raw materials to friendly countries and having the host nations manufacture products instead. The goods could then be exported to the US at lower costs.
China+1 at risk
Trump's tariffs will likely stifle China+1 among Beijing's close allies.
Cambodia, for example, relies largely on China+1 for its exports of clothing, sporting goods, luggage, and other products.
"Cambodia has no raw materials. All the raw materials, the supplies have to come from mainly China, even buttons or threads," said Mu Sochua, a former Cambodian minister who works in exile due to her criticism of the incumbent government.
"In a week from now, if Cambodia cannot negotiate to have the tariffs go down significantly, there will be an immediate economic crisis," she added. She added that if factories there shut down or pause production, over a million factory workers could lose their livelihoods.
Vietnam, a major base for making Chinese-partnered goods, is likely to try negotiating its 46% tariff with the US. Hanoi has asked Washington to pause the taxes and come to the table, and Trump has said he is open to discussion on his tariffs.
Beijing's opportunity
Vietnam balances its ties more evenly with the US and China, and its relationship with Beijing suffers from disputes over the South China Sea.
Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar are far deeper in China's camp.
China works closely with Myanmar's ruling junta and opposing rebel factions to maintain access to vast rare earth mineral reserves in the country's north. Myanmar is also the only geographical barrier between China and the Indian Ocean.
The Trump administration has shown little interest in extending influence over Myanmar. The US was absent from the list of parties sending aid to the country after a devastating earthquake struck Myanmar on March 28.
Meanwhile, Cambodia hosts a naval base built by China on its southern coast — an important facility that would extend China's reach into Southeast Asia and on Taiwan's flank.
Cambodia's long-ruling and iron-fisted prime minister, Hun Sen, also enjoys close personal ties with Beijing. The country's foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment from BI.
Kilcrease of CNAS said the incentives for China's allies to look to Beijing are already shaping up on paper.
"We did some back-of-the-envelope math, and it appears that most countries in the world now face a higher tariff rate from the US than from China," she said. "So, yes, there is a significant risk that these countries move closer to China."
Beijing is also generally well-received in Southeast Asia, said Kristina Fong, the lead researcher on the region's economic affairs at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
She cited a study of attitudes among over 2,000 Southeast Asians conducted by her institute in early 2025.
"56.4% of Southeast Asian respondents cited China as Southeast Asia's most influential economic power. China was the choice for all ASEAN countries," Fong said.
The ball is in China's court
In the interim, the ball is in Beijing's court, said Austin Strange, an associate professor at the University of Hong Kong's Department of Politics and Public Administration.
"China's government, at least in the short term, can make public relations gains — just as in other areas of foreign policy, such as international development — by presenting itself as a stable, reliable partner amid US foreign policy upheaval," he said.
Beijing's state media reported last weekend that its authorities agreed with South Korea and Japan to issue a joint response to any US tariffs. However, Tokyo has said its leaders simply met to share views. Seoul said reports of a team-up were "somewhat exaggerated."
"But I expect China and other economies to continue to find workarounds," Strange added. "They have, after all, had months if not longer to prepare, as Trump has consistently pledged to levy sweeping tariffs."