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- Stronger inflation will soon fade as millions of Americans rush back to work, Goldman Sachs said.
- Labor supply will rebound as virus fears fade and enhanced unemployment benefits lapse, the bank said.
- Ending the labor shortage should cool wage inflation, and price inflation will also likely be temporary, Goldman added.
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When it comes to the inflation debate looming over the US economy, Goldman Sachs is on the side of the Federal Reserve and the Biden administration.
Gauges of nationwide price growth are surging at their fastest rate in more than a decade, sparking concerns of an overheating economy ending the recovery early. Republicans and some moderate Democrats have blamed the Fed's ultra-easy policy stance and unprecedented fiscal stimulus for the inflation overshoot. The Biden administration and the central bank have instead argued the stronger price growth is temporary and fade starting next year.
Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius reiterated their stance on the Biden side on Monday, citing the latest jobs numbers as supporting evidence. The US added 559,000 nonfarm payrolls in May, missing the median estimate but still a sharp rebound from the dismal April report. Wages shot higher for a second straight month, signaling inflation was picking up in pay and pricing.
The combination of soaring wages and stronger inflation amplified Republicans' claims of an overheating economy. Yet both pressures should cool in the coming months, Goldman said. For one, the economy is still down roughly 8 million payrolls, and May's pace of job creation still places a full recovery more than a year into the future. Labor supply, which has been slowing hiring in recent months, should also "increase dramatically" as virus fears dim and enhanced unemployment insurance lapses. As more Americans return to work, wage growth is expected to slow.
Inflation should also cool on the pricing side, according to the bank. Goldman's trimmed core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – which excludes the 30% largest month-over-month price changes – has only risen 1.6% from the year-ago level. By comparison, standard PCE – among the most popular US inflation gauges – notched a 3.6% year-over-year gain in April. Core PCE strips out volatile food and energy prices and is generally viewed as a more reliable measure of long-term inflation.
The disparity reveals the "unprecedented role of outliers" in driving inflation higher, and such an effect should "have only limited effects on longer-term inflation expectations," the economists said in a note to clients.
"Ultimately, the biggest question in the overheating debate remains whether US output and employment will rise sharply above potential in the next few years," the team added. "If the answer is yes, then inflation could indeed climb to undesirable levels on a more permanent basis. But our answer continues to be no."
The forecasts echo sentiments shared recently by central bank officials. Fed Governor Lael Brainard said last week that, as schools reopen and vaccinations continue, it's likely that the labor shortage will unravel. Job openings sat at record highs by the end of March, and a matching of such huge demand with bolstered supply should drive "further progress on employment," she added.
More broadly, Goldman expects GDP growth to slow after peaking in the second quarter and normalize as stimulus support lapses. The massive jobs shortfall makes for "significant slack" in the labor market, the bank said, adding that unemployment-based output should reach its maximum potential in late 2023.