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- Piper Sandler’s Michael Kantrowitz still sees a recession ahead for the US economy.
- He says unemployment claims data often looks benign before revisions make a trend more obvious.
- According to RBC, the average recessionary bear market is a stock drawdown of 32%.
When new employment data comes out, investors in large part tend to take it at face value. But revisions to this data are often just as important as the initial releases, as they can dramatically reshape the narrative around the health of the US economy, for better or for worse.
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