In June, Sandy Jadeja – the man who accurately predicted five market crashes to the exact date – gave us three more dates when we should expect to see a fall in the US Dow Jones index, which he said would have repercussions across other markets, such as oil.
Jadeja noted at the time that “past performance does not guarantee future certainty.”
Still, Business Insider decided to check whether his predictions came true. The results were interesting. The falls in the Dow and oil were enough to lose people quite a bit of money if they were unprepared.
Jadeja is a technical analyst and the chief market strategist at Core Spreads. Technical analysts look at charts to pinpoint patterns in various markets and asset classes. From that they forecast which direction prices are likely to move.
They don’t try to say why there will be a big market movement – only that there will be one. His previous four predictions are explained in detail here. His fifth prediction came true when he told Business Insider last month that there was an “80% probability of lower [oil] prices from July 2, right through to August 18.” The charts he provided corresponded with the same pattern for the dates he provided.
On June 18 - less than a week before the Brexit vote - he told Business Insider that the following dates would spell trouble for the Dow Jones in the US, which could spread to other markets. He did not give any diary event dates, like the UK vote on the European Union referendum or the US election date, for obvious purposes:
1. Between August 26 and August 30, 2016.
2. September 26, 2016.
3. October 20, 2016.
He said at the time: "We are currently in a very dangerous time zone between 2011 until 2018. This is an 84-year cycle [called the 'Time Cycle'] and the previous cycle appeared during 1928 until 1934 where the Great Depression took place."
Here is the chart:
Now take a look at the chart that mirrors that period:
"This exact same cycle is what we are in right now," Jadeja said at the time. "And so I am worried that we could see a potential threat to our economy in the current 'Time Cycle' we are witnessing right now.
"We have a situation. This lasts until 2018 for this particular cycle. And my worry is that we could see sudden sharp declines take place and tripping investors if they are not prepared."
So did his predictions come true?
The Dow did slump from August 26 to August 30, but it did not crash. It took a sharp downward spike on August 26. It started to recover on August 29, and then it fell again on August 30 and continued to on August 31:
But as Jadeja said, that slump would be felt across other markets. Take a look at oil between August 26 and August 30 - there was a huge fall:
Then on September 26, there was a definitive spike downward on that date:
And now look at crude oil on that date:
On October 20, there was a small move downward on the Dow Jones:
The same happened to oil on October 20:
Back in June, Jadeja said "we can use market data to help us forecast price targets and when we see price and time meet together there is a stronger than average potential for major turns in global markets."
"I believe that using the information we have and embracing the tools and technology we have access to right now that we could use these to our advantage to prepare and protect as well as prepare and prosper," he said.