- A missile hit the MV Aya, which was carrying grain from Ukraine to Egypt, on September 11.
- The strike led to fears of a potential escalation in Russian attacks on the Black Sea grain corridor.
- But according to the UK MOD, it was likely an error caused by poor procedures and aging munition.
A strike last month on a merchant ship in the Black Sea was almost certainly the result of a bungled Russian bomber attack using outdated ammunition, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.
On September 11, the Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged vessel MV Aya was loaded with grain bound for Egypt from Ukraine's port of Odesa when it was struck by what was widely assumed to be a Russian missile.
There were no casualties reported at the time.
The ship was damaged, but managed to reach Romania's coast under its own steam, where it received help, according to Ambrey, a marine insurer.
The strike led to fears of a potential escalation in Russian attacks on the Black Sea grain corridor. But according to UK intelligence, it was likely not meant for the Aya at all but happened "due to poor targeting procedures from Russian pilots using an aging munition."
According to its assessment, the strike was almost certainly an AS-4 anti-ship missile fired from a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber.
It's possible that the bomber misidentified the Aya, it said, fired "in haste," and then rushed away from the scene "for fear of being targeted by a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile."
"It is a realistic possibility a detonation failure avoided catastrophic damage," the UK MOD added.
It also said that Ukraine shot down a Russian Tu-22, also known as a BACKFIRE, in April this year, which would explain why Russian pilots have been "more wary with their strike operations in the Black Sea."
Using long-range missile strikes and naval drones, Ukraine has managed to push much of Russia's Black Sea Fleet from its base at Sevastopol, in occupied Crimea, to the safer Russian waters of Novorossiysk.
Since its exit from the Black Sea grain initiative, Russia's attacks on Ukrainian naval export abilities have been largely limited to striking ports, and — it's widely believed — dropping naval mines.
The September 11 incident was the first direct strike on a merchant ship in the grain corridor since November 2023.
"A direct attack" like this would mark "a significant escalation," Ambrey said, adding: "Until Russian officials provide an explanation, the threat to vessels calling Ukraine remains high."
Ukraine's economy is heavily dependent on maritime exports. Before 2022, it accounted for 10% of the global grain market, with 90% of that heading out to the world via the Black Sea, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Despite the potential for economic warfare, Russia has good reason to avoid escalating the threat to shipping in the Black Sea, Ambrey wrote.
Any escalation would have a knock-on effect on naval insurance premiums, which "would make trade with both Russia and Ukraine significantly more costly," it said.
The UK MOD was scathing about the apparent accidental attack on the Aya.
"Launching a supersonic cruise missile on an incorrect heading against a likely erroneous target in international waters demonstrates extremely poor and irresponsible aviation practice," it said.