• GOP Rep. Roger Marshall is running against Democratic State Senator Barbara Bollier to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas.
  • Bollier will face an uphill battle against Marshall, the preferred pick of the Republican establishment whose Senate bid was backed by Roberts and other prominent Republicans.
  • The protracted and hotly-contested Republican primary fight, however, allowed Bollier to amass a massive cash advantage over Marshall.
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GOP Rep. Roger Marshall is running against Democratic State Senator Barbara Bollier to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas.

The candidates:

Marshall, who represents the state’s first congressional district, defeated controversial former Secretary of State Kris Kobach and business owner Bob Hamilton in a competitive primary to determine the GOP nominee in the race to succeed Roberts.

Marshall, a veteran of the US Army Reserves and a OB/GYN by training, is a staunch conservative but still a far more mainstream Republican as opposed to a firebrand like Kobach. His primary run was endorsed by outgoing Senator Pat Roberts, National Right to Life, and the US Chamber of Commerce.

Bollier, also a physician, has served in the Kansas state legislature since 2011 and in the state senate since 2017, where she has advocated for greater healthcare access and education funding in Kansas.

Bollier will face an uphill battle against Marshall in safely Republican Kansas, the protracted and hotly-contested Republican primary fight has allowed her to amass a massive cash advantage over Marshall and all the Republicans in the primary race.

She raised $3.7 million in 2020's second fundraising quarter, breaking an all-time quarterly fundraising record for any federal or state campaign in Kansas history, the Kansas City Star reported.

The stakes:

In addition to winning back the White House, regaining control of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 is a top priority for Democrats and would be a major accomplishment towards either delivering on a future president Joe Biden's policy goals or thwarting Trump's second-term agenda.

Currently, the US Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with Democrats, winning that Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote).

Kansas has traditionally been a Republican stronghold, and Marshall winning the August 4 primary was a relief for national Republicans concerned that Kobach's bombastic political brand and very recent statewide loss in the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election.

Still, Republicans are largely playing defense in 2020 to maintain control of the chamber, with both sides continuing to invest in the race. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that a PAC aligned with Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is spending over $4 million on TV ads to boost Marshall over the next several weeks.

The money race: With less than three months to go until the general election, Bollier has far outmatched Marshall in fundraising, bringing in over $7.8 million and spending $3.6 million this cycle compared to $2.7 million raised and $2.3 million spent for Marshall, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Bollier also now outpaces Marshall in cash on hand by a 4-to-1 ratio.

What the polling says: The latest poll of the race conducted after the primary by Public Policy Polling from August 5-6 indicates that Marshall's posturing in the race has suffered considerably from the bitter GOP primary. After the primary, Marshall now leads Bollier by one point, 43% to 42%, down from the 10-point lead he held from Bollier in March in Public Policy Polling.

What the experts say: The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate this race as "leans Republican" while Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rates it as "likely Republican."