- Ray Dalio said Trump’s trade war could lead to a recession soon.
- Dalio called the import duties disruptive — like “throwing rocks into the production system.”
- Dalio highlighted domestic conflict and debt as underlying reasons behind the state of the economy.
Ray Dalio is worried about how President Donald Trump’s tariffs are pushing financial markets into chaos.
In an NBC appearance on Sunday, the Bridgewater Associates founder said, “Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession.”
Recessions are officially defined as a fall in gross domestic product for two back-to-back quarters. The dreaded word, which indicates a slowing economy, has been front and center for business leaders and analysts since the April 2 stock market selloff.
Last week, after shocking markets around the world, Trump delayed his original plan of reciprocal tariffs on nearly every foreign country by 90 days. The back and forth on the tariffs has been paralyzing businesses and spooking investors.
When asked about how Trump’s tariffs were carried out, Dalio said that the economy will have to wait until the end of the 90-day extension to see where things stand. He said the duties are “so far very disruptive.”
"What was put in there is like throwing rocks into the production system," the billionaire investor said. "Those impacts would be enormous in terms of the efficiency of the whole world."
In an X post last week, Dalio wrote about paying attention to the underlying reasons that got Trump elected and brought on his tariffs.
"The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders," he wrote. "This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place."
Dalio is among Wall Street icons who have started using the word "recession" to describe the state of the US economy.
Last week, JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, said that a recession was now a "likely outcome" for the US economy.
"I mean, when you see a 2,000-point decline, it sort of feeds on itself, doesn't it," Dimon said on Fox Business on Wednesday.
On Friday, BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, said on CNBC said the US may already be in a recession.
"I think we're very close, if not in, a recession now," Fink said. "We now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that means longer, more elevated uncertainty."