The Mexican peso was crashing on Tuesday as polling data from the US presidential election crossed the wires.
The currency was down by about 13.0% at 20.6879 per dollar around 11:50 p.m. ET, around lows for the day.
Earlier, before election results started rolling out, the currency closed the day up by about 1.3% against the dollar.
Alabama, Kentucky, Indiana, Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Kansas, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Ohio, Tennessee, Mississippi, Montana, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and West Virginia had been called for Donald Trump as of late Tuesday night. Vermont, Connecticut, California, Hawaii, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, Washington DC, Colorado, Washington state, Oregon, and Virginia had been called for Hillary Clinton.
Given that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s protectionist platform could have negative repercussions for the Mexican economy, the currency had become something of a gauge of his prospects over the past couple of months of the campaign.
Stay up to date with all the results on the Business Insider live-blog here»
The market saw Hillary Clinton as a known player whose policies were expected to be largely a continuation of the Obama administration's. Trump and his economic positions, however, are less predictable and do not always follow party orthodoxy. And so he was perceived as more of a political risk.
Given those parameters, and the fact that major forecasters thought a Clinton win was more likely, John Higgins, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, argued in a note earlier on Tuesday that "a victory for Hillary Clinton in today's presidential election is now heavily discounted. As a result, it would trigger far less of a response in the markets than a surprise win for Donald Trump."
"Equities in the US would probably be boosted further by a Clinton victory, although we suspect that the upside would also be limited given their latest gains and the prospects for Fed policy and the dollar," he explained.
He added that the resulting stronger dollar would likely boost stocks in other developed markets, and that emerging market stocks could benefit from the likely increased risk-on posture.
Meanwhile, regarding a Trump win, Higgins argued that things could pull in the "opposite direction":
"For example, we think the S&P 500 would fall below 2,000, compared to a current level of around 2,130. And many stock market indices elsewhere would probably fare worse. The Nikkei 225 could be hit especially hard by accompanying strength in the yen - we wouldn't be surprised if it tumbled below 15,000, compared to a current level of more than 17,000. And there would probably a broad-based rout in emerging markets."
At the same time, other economists argued that investors might pour into safe-have assets such as the Japanese yen, the US dollar, gold, and Treasurys if it appeared Trump would win.
Regarding the yen specifically, Taisuke Tanaka, strategist at Deutsche Bank, wrote earlier, "Since October, USD/JPY and share prices have risen when polls suggest a Clinton win is more likely and fallen when support for Trump rebounds."
"Initially, the reaction of USD/JPY and share prices is likely to follow this preelection pattern until there is some certainty about the election outcome," he added. "However, we think a Clinton victory should not be necessarily viewed as USD/JPY-bullish, only for a trigger to unwind USD/JPY shorts."
The yen finished Tuesday's session down about 0.6% at 105.14 per dollar. It was up by about 3% at 102.03 per dollar as of 10:21 pm ET.