- Democrats have a lot of work to do to temper Joe Manchin's criticisms of the child tax credit.
- He's skeptical of monthly checks and reportedly raised concerns the money is being spent on drugs.
- Without Manchin's vote, Democrats can't pass the legislation in the 50-50 Senate.
Democrats have a difficult task in the coming weeks when it comes to convincing Sen. Joe Manchin to support the expanded child tax credit.
The conservative Democrat from West Virginia has only amplified his criticisms of the benefit in recent days — including about how it was remade into a monthly check program as part of President Joe Biden's stimulus law. It provides up to $300 a month per child to most families and forms the cornerstone of Democrats' efforts to slash child poverty.
Democrats have been aiming to renew it for another year in their $2 trillion Build Back Better bill, but Manchin has lobbed broadsides against the program in public and private since late summer. He's been skeptical of monthly checks, reportedly raised concerns the cash is being spent on drugs, demanded stricter income caps along with a work requirement, and wants more grandparents to be eligible for it.
Without Manchin's vote, Democrats can't pass the legislation in the 50-50 Senate.
Manchin's wide range of concerns is prompting one Democrat who helped design the measure to say he's worried that his colleague might never budge, which would torpedo the measure. Asked if he thought the conservative Democrat could be brought on board with renewing the child-tax-credit expansion, Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado told Insider: "I just don't know."
"I think Senator Manchin changes his mind from time to time on this, which is his prerogative," Bennet said in a Tuesday interview. "My goal is to continue to try to persuade him that this is a vital tax benefit for working people in this country. I wish that he would agree with the data that all demonstrates that's true."
Manchin's office did not respond to requests for comment from Insider.
There's a growing body of research indicating that families have relied on the cash to cover everyday expenses like groceries and utilities, and put healthier food on the table. It's also slashed child poverty by almost a third.
"I wish he'd be impressed with the cut in childhood poverty, and the dramatic reduction in hunger for children," Bennet said. "But so far, I haven't been able to persuade him to please not raise taxes for working families in the middle of a time when they're having trouble paying their bills."
If Manchin were to yank support from the benefit, the effect on his home state could be disastrous. Around 50,000 kids would be at risk of falling or slipping deeper into poverty, per data from the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
It's far from clear whether Democrats can revamp the child allowance in a way that's palatable to both Manchin and the rest of their party. The vast majority of Democrats support keeping the program set up to issue checks to families with no strings attached. Previously, households with little or no taxable income were shut out of the program.
Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon recently told Insider that he was supportive of ensuring more grandparents are able to receive the child tax credit without having to claim grandkids as dependents. That would address one of Manchin's concerns.
If the measure were to fall out of the legislation, a deal would have to be struck with Republicans — and the ensuing benefit would likely not resemble the program currently in place. For starters, most Republicans strongly back a child tax credit that's tied to work and doesn't issue monthly payments.
"I think there are things that can be done with the child tax credit with Republicans in this balance of power in an election year," Liam Donovan, a former Republican political strategist, told Insider. "But it would absolutely not be the Biden monthly payment."