• Theresa Greenfield is challenging GOP Sen. Joni Ernst for US Senate in Iowa.
  • Ernst, an Army veteran, was first elected to the US Senate in 2014, a GOP wave year and is facing a much tougher race for a second term.
  • While Iowa has been steadily trending Republican at the federal level for the past few cycles, the COVID-19 pandemic has expanded the Senate map and but Ernst’s seat in play.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Theresa Greenfield is challenging GOP Sen. Joni Ernst for US Senate in Iowa.

The candidates:

Ernst, an Iowa Army National Guard veteran, was first elected to the US Senate in 2014, a GOP wave year and is now seeking a second term.

Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, has thrown their weight behind Theresa Greenfield, an urban planner, real estate developer, and first-time political candidate who officially clinched the nomination on June 2.

Already, Greenfield is proving to be a highly competent fundraiser. In 2020’s second fundraising quarter from March 1 to June 30, Greenfield brought in $6 million compared to $3.6 million for Ernst.

Ernst captured national attention during her 2014 campaign for highlighting her experience growing up on a pig farm and pledging to "make 'em squeal" in Washington. Greenfield, however, is arguing that Ernst is just a rubber stamp for Trump's agenda.

The stakes:

In addition to winning back the White House, regaining control of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 is a top priority for Democrats and would be a major accomplishment towards either delivering on a future president Joe Biden's policy goals or thwarting President Donald Trump's second-term agenda.

Currently, the US Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with Democrats, winning that Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote).

Iowa has been steadily trending Republican at the presidential level for the last several election cycles, with Trump carrying the state by eight percentage points in 2016.

But the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing economic crisis have dramatically expanded the Senate map for Democrats and made some races that were not expected to be battleground increasingly competitive, putting Ernst's seat back in play.

The money race: Ernst has raised over $14 million and spent $5.4 million so far this cycle with $9.1 million in cash on hand, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Greenfield has raised $11.5 million, spent $5.9 million, and has $5.6 million in cash on hand.

What the polling says: The most recent polling indicates a tight race between Ernst and Greenfield. A poll of the race conducted by Monmouth University conducted July 30-August 2 found Ernst leading Greenfield by one point, 48% to 47%.

What the experts say: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics all rate this race as a tossup.