- The UK's top civil servant is investigating multiple Christmas parties in Downing Street.
- Boris Johnson commissioned the probe hoping to defuse huge public anger over the alleged events.
- But the probe will likely be brief and is not independent, a source familiar with the process said.
The investigation into parties alleged to have taken place at the heart of the UK government despite COVID-19 rules is not truly independent and will likely only last a few days, Insider has been told.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson launched the investigation in an attempt to deal with mounting reports that staff at Downing Street and another government department had ignored virus restrictions to hold celebrations in November and December of 2020.
Simon Case, the cabinet secretary and the top civil servant in the UK government, was charged with carrying out the investigation.
At first, Case was meant only to look at a party alleged to have occurred on December 18, 2020, the scope of the probe has since expanded to include an examination of a party held in Downing Street on November 27, 2020, and at the Department for Education on December 10, 2020.
The original investigation was announced by Johnson as he sought to respond to the publication of a leaked video showing Downing Street staff and Johnson's press secretary laughing and joking about a "business meeting" with "wine and cheese" held on December 18 2020, in footage first reported by the broadcaster ITV.
Johnson's spokesperson told reporters today that the decision to widen the scope of the inquiry was Case's decision. The spokesperson has repeatedly referred to the investigation — or "fact-finding exercise" – as "independent".
Who decides what is being investigated?
But a former official with a close understanding of Cabinet Office investigations suggested to Insider that the terms of any inquiry are set by the Prime Minister. The person was granted anonymity by Insider owing to the sensitivity of their prior role, but their identity is known to Insider.
Terms of reference for the inquiry are due to be published by the government later on Thursday, and Johnson's spokesperson told reporters these were set by Case, the cabinet secretary.
The former official has suggested otherwise, saying the terms are set by the Prime Minister, which would undermine the independence of a process which has large political ramifications.
"It's an iterative process, but the terms are set by the Prime Minister. This is not the cabinet secretary doing an independent piece of work, this is the Prime Minister asking the cabinet secretary for advice and thoughts on consequences, separate to Lord Geidt," they told Insider.
Lord Geidt is the Prime Minister's independent advisor on ministers interests, who was appointed by Johnson. He is not a civil servant and functions according to different rules.
Case could potentially bring Geidt in to start his own inquiry, the former official suggested.
Who will investigate and how long should it take?
While ministers have said it is Case who is investigating, the actual work is carried out by civil servants in the Cabinet Office, a cross-governmental department with close links to the Prime Minster's office in 10 Downing Street. They do so under Case's lead.
A core team of four to five officials in the Propriety and Ethics team will "have conversations and draw together" evidence, the former official said, in a "fluid" process with no "set procedure" to follow.
The core team could bring in further officials to support them, including lawyers from the Government Legal Service.
"They look at the documents, give them to the cabinet secretary, and a report is made by the cabinet secretary and that goes to the Prime Minister as advice."
Asked by Insider how long the investigation should take, the former official said: "How long is a piece of string? But something like this shouldn't be more than a few days."
The Prime Minister's spokesperson told reporters on Thursday that "we want the investigation to be completed as soon as possible."
Other investigations have dragged on. A leak inquiry by Case meant to find the so-called "chatty rat" who leaked news of an impending lockdown in November 2020 was launched almost immediately but is still underway more than a year later.
It is the same group of officials in the Propriety and Ethics team who investigated the "chatty rat" probe that are now supporting Case in his investigation of the Downing Street parties.
What role could the police play?
The Metropolitan Police has so far said there is not enough evidence to investigate any parties alleged to have occurred in Downing Street.
The former official told Insider that should civil servants come across evidence of criminal wrongdoing they would be duty bound to pass it on. Coronavirus regulations are part of UK criminal law, so illicit parties would qualify.
"In this instance, if evidence came to light, you would expect a civil servant to make the necessary referral," they said.
"But the Prime Minister could direct them not to."
The former official said it would be extremely unlikely for a Prime Minister to issue such an instruction, noting that it would create a huge conflict for the civil servant.
But the investigation is not "a criminal standard investigation. It is rare to get into the criminal side of things."
A minister told the MPs in parliament on Thursday that, should criminal wrongdoing be found by civil servants, the inquiry may be paused to allow for the police to take over.