- Over the last 18 days, the 2024 race has been totally upended — in Trump's favor.
- It began with Biden's debate meltdown and the two weeks of Democratic infighting that followed.
- Fresh off of surviving an assassination attempt, he's now been given a victory in his docs case.
There's no denying it: Donald Trump is experiencing an incredible stroke of luck.
The former president is headed into this week's Republican National Convention with the political wind at his back, fresh off of surviving an assassination attempt as the Democratic Party struggles with whether to stick with President Joe Biden after his disastrous debate performance.
On Monday, Trump got another victory, at least for now: Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the federal government's classified documents case against him.
Polling has shown that Trump's lead over President Joe Biden has only continued to grow, and it's difficult to see how Democrats will be able to turn that around. It may be the luckiest 18 days that any presidential candidate has ever had.
June 27: Biden's debate meltdown
We all know it by now: The first debate was an unmitigated disaster for Biden, with the president appearing frail, stumbling over his own words, and occasionally uttering nonsensical phrases.
Biden's performance cemented long-standing concerns among voters, including most Democrats, that the president is too old to seek another term. Trump may be only a few years younger than Biden, and he did tell numerous lies at the debate, but he was able to deliver an energetic-enough performance that ensured the focus remained on Biden.
Even more harmful for the president was the debate-about-the-debate that consumed the following two weeks, with Democrats engaging in a very public disagreement over whether Biden still represents their best shot at beating Trump.
Twenty House Democrats and one Democratic senator have publicly called for Biden to withdraw from the race, while several others have simply observed that barring a course correction, Trump is likely to win the election in November.
Those discussions largely went quiet in the wake of the attempt on Trump's life, but they're unlikely to completely stop, especially if subsequent events lead to a continued polling boost for the former president.
July 13: Surviving an assassination attempt
At a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday, Trump narrowly avoided an attempt on his life.
On the one hand, Trump is simply lucky that he didn't die: One of the gunman's bullets grazed his ear. If he had been standing even an inch to the right, he may have been fatally wounded.
"I'm not supposed to be here, I'm supposed to be dead," Trump told the New York Post. "By luck or by God, many people are saying it's by God I'm still here."
But there's also no denying the political advantage that the attempted assassination gives Trump.
While he and his allies have long stoked political violence — particularly the January 6 attack on the US Capitol — the narrow miss allows Trump to flip that script and credibly portray himself as the victim of political violence, even if the motive of the shooter remains unclear.
On Sunday, Trump said he would deliver a speech focused on unity, rather than attacking Biden, on Thursday at the RNC.
There's also the enduring power of the images of Trump raising his fist at the rally immediately after he was shot.
Those images are likely to be a powerful motivator for his supporters, driving up enthusiasm ahead of the election.
July 15: A judge dismisses Trump's classified documents case
On Monday, Trump received another dose of good news.
Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the federal government's classified documents case against Trump, ruling that the appointment of special counsel Jack Smith was unconstitutional.
The case, widely perceived to be the most potent against the former president, isn't totally dead yet. Smith is likely to appeal the judge's decision, and it could ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.
But at the very least, Cannon's move delays the case further and provides an important morale boost for the president and his supporters going into the convention.
It also underscores the enduring impact that Trump's first term had on the American judicial system: Cannon was nominated by Trump in 2020 and confirmed by the Senate, then controlled by Republicans, later that year.