- Oil and gas will remain the dominant energy sources in 2050, according to a new report from Exxon.
- The company points to population growth and increasing energy needs among developing countries.
- It projects renewable use will grow and coal will decline.
Contrary to forecasts for oil demand to peak in the coming years, Exxon Mobil says oil and gas will remain the dominant sources of energy until the middle of this century.
The oil major said in an outlook published this month that global oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels a day through 2050, even as the share of renewable powers grows.
Broken down by source, it sees oil and gas accounting for 54% of the global energy mix by 2050, coal at 13%, nuclear energy at 6%, bioenergy at 10%, and renewables like wind, solar, and hydroelectric at 15%.
That forecast stands in contrast to predictions from the International Energy Agency, which predicts that oil and gas demand will peak and plateau at 105.6 million barrels per day by 2029.
Exxon, the leading oil and gas company in the US, pointed to a rise in the global population to 10 billion in 2050, up from 8 billion today.
With half of the world's population currently living below Exxon's "modern energy minimum"—having enough energy for housing, infrastructure, jobs, and mobility—the company projects a 15% increase in global energy use is necessary for reliable energy worldwide by 2050.
That rise in energy use will be predominantly driven by a 25% increase among developing countries, whose current energy problems put inhabitants at risk from harmful cooking fuels, limited electricity, and poverty, the report says.
Developed countries, on the other hand, will decrease energy use by 10% due to improved efficiency.
The report says that even greater adoption of electric vehicles won't make a dent in oil and gas usage.
"What many don't realize is that making gasoline is but one relatively small use for oil," Exxon said in its report, adding that the majority of the world's oil is used for industrial processes like manufacturing, and for transportation like shipping, trucking, and air travel.
"These services are needed for modern life – and they also fuel future economic growth in the developing world," the report says.
At the same time, the report predicts carbon emissions will drop for the first time in 2030. Last year, the company's annual report said the world likely won't meet the emission reduction targets that were set in the Paris Climate Accords in 2015 to curb the effects of climate change.