- Global oil storage could hit its limit as soon as mid-May, Goldman Sachs analysts forecasted in a recent client note.
- The commodity has been battered by the coronavirus’s hit to demand and a slow reaction to curbing supply, creating an unprecedented inventory glut around the world.
- Hitting the storage limit would drive “substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand,” the team led by Jeff Currie wrote in a note.
- Equalizing the market would involve cutting production by 18 million barrels per day, the bank added, nearly double what OPEC+ pledged to cut in an April meeting.
- Watch oil trade live here.
The world’s oil storage could reach capacity as soon as mid-May and wreak additional havoc on the critical commodity market, Goldman Sachs analysts said Friday.
Oil prices sit close to historic lows as the coronavirus pandemic sinks demand and leaves producers struggling to stem a massive supply glut. The downward pressure recently pushed West Texas Intermediate crude contracts into negative territory for the first time ever and has kept the commodity from staging a return to past highs.
While some producers have slowed pumping activity, Goldman sees the market testing the world’s storage capacity within the next three to four weeks.
The WTI price drop was "a local event" that previews what could happen to global benchmarks should storage top off, the team of analysts led by Jeff Currie wrote in a note. Such a market phenomenon "will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside until supply finally equals demand," the bank added.
Goldman sees demand sliding by 18 million barrels per day in mid-May, adding that "a near equal amount of supply" would need to be slashed to pad the market slump. The sum is nearly double what OPEC+ pledged to cut in its April meeting.
If production is halted accordingly, difficulty in restarting such activity would lead the supply rebound to take an L-shaped trend, the analysts said. The global supply overhang won't arrive until mid-2021, Goldman projected.
Fears of storage reaching its limit contributed to oil's Monday slide. WTI contracts for June delivery plummeted as much as 30% to $11.88 per barrel, wiping out gains made since Wednesday as traders feared for another month of market turmoil.
Brent crude, the commodity's international benchmark, dipped as much as 11% to $19.11 per barrel.
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