- Northern Tory MPs say Johnson's decision to pull out of a northern conference may have backfired.
- The party's autumn conference could be a "beauty parade" for leadership rivals, one said.
- Another noted that only 32 Johnson supporters need to rebel for the PM to lose another confidence vote.
Boris Johnson's last-minute decision to back out of an event with northern Conservative MPs has fired the starting gun on yet another leadership challenge, Tories believe.
The prime minister's surprise decision to visit Ukraine instead of addressing the Doncaster-based Northern Research Group is now expected to result in rivals vying for the support of the Red Wall group of MPs that he snubbed.
Many of those MPs, who entered Parliament in 2019, gave the prime minister conditional support during last week's vote of no confidence.
One MP who backed Johnson last week has told Insider they already regret doing so.
Another Tory suggested that the party's autumn conference could become a "beauty parade" for leadership rivals, saying: "[Contenders] have five weeks to get the numbers and ensure people are onside. Then conference becomes a beauty parade and if an alternative is available, all bets are off."
Rivals would be getting prepared over the summer, with things "going a lot faster than people think"," he added. "Rules don't matter — everything is guidelines."
"The Red Wall saved him — now the Red Wall is looking at alternatives. Not going is one of the biggest, stupidest fucking mistakes ever."
Another senior backbencher noted that after last week's vote of no confidence, the rebels needed 32 Johnson supporters to switch in order to bring the prime minister down.
As of October 2020, the Northern Research Group had 55 members, with around 20 attending the Doncaster event.
"It's a rollercoaster without breaks," the MP said. "Sooner or later the wheels will come off it's just impossible to know when.
"I am sure they've calculated that the downside of visiting Wakefield far outweighed the downside of missing the NRG," they said, referring to expectations that he would visit nearby Wakefield as part of a by-election campaign there. "And everyone would understand a visit to Ukraine. Think they may have miscalculated."
Instead of hearing from the prime minister, assembled MPs, business representatives, and others heard from Tom Tugendhat, the MP for Tonbridge and Malling, who has not ruled out a leadership challenge.
On Thursday night, MPs also heard a speech from Chancellor Rishi Sunak, which one attendee said was "full of energy."