Happy Friday readers. Phil Rosen here — boy am I glad to see you today.
As a final send-off before the long weekend, I wanted to share some more chipper news…
But in a bear market that's harder to come by. So instead, I'll be explaining the crypto downturn, and why a top analyst says bitcoin still has plenty of room to fall (even though it just sagged below $19,000 yesterday).
Here we go.
Programming note: There will be no newsletter on Monday, the Fourth of July. Enjoy the long weekend.
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1. The world's biggest crypto might be just getting started — with its dramatic decline, that is. According to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton, bitcoin's negative momentum points to another 27% fall as it tests a key support level.
"Bitcoin has stabilized after a reaction to short-term oversold indications last week, supporting a short-term neutral bias within a bearish long-term trend," Stockton said.
On Thursday, bitcoin slipped about 5% to sag below $19,000. If the crypto breaks the $18,300 support level, Stockton said it could freefall all the way to its 2019 highs of about $13,900.
Bitcoin's nosedive and the subsequent rout in the wider crypto space has spurred a series of implosions that have rippled through the market this year.
Most recently, hedge fund Three Arrows Capital defaulted on a $670 million loan comprising roughly 15,000 bitcoin and $350 million in stablecoin USDC.
Meanwhile, crypto exchange CoinFlex this week was the latest in a spate of firms announcing that it would halt customer withdrawal as it deals with a $47 million bad debt.
Shaky investor confidence has sparked a wave of deleveraging in the sector. Retail investors are scaling back their margin accounts, and miners are selling bitcoin after using it as leverage to expand their operations. However, there are some analysts who believe the deleveraging cycle is nearing its end.
Companies in the space have taken a big hit, but giants like Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX are seeing opportunities. According to reports, Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange is in talks to buy beleaguered crypto lender BlockFi. Citing a source, CNBC said FTX is expected to pay roughly $25 million, 99% below BlockFi's last private valuation. BlockFi's CEO, Zac Prince, however, took to Twitter to comment on the report. It comes after The Block reported that FTX was also interested in making a deal with Celsius, but walked away because of the state of its finances.
2. US stock futures fell early Friday, after the S&P 500 closed out its worst first half of a year since 1970. You can see the latest market moves here.
3. On the docket: Nomad Holdings Ltd., Weathernews Inc., and more all reporting. Plus, look out for the ISM report on business manufacturing PMI, expected from the Institute for Supply Management at 9:00 am ET.
4. These are the stocks set to outperform in a market struggling to deal with recession risks and high inflation. That's according to UBS analysts, who said the uncertain market can present risks. See their list of 33 companies.
5. Analysts are forecasting that Bed Bath & Beyond has another 50% to fall. The stock's "dumpster fire" first quarter means its days could be numbered. As one analyst put it: "We are in the end days."
6. RBC's commodities chief said oil prices could be set to rise further thanks to OPEC struggles and higher demand. The oil cartel lacks additional supplies to meet the call for more output, the analyst said, and China's economic reopening will push demand higher. Here's what you want to know.
7. A top Indian company paid for Russian coal in yuan. And traders said more buyers could turn to China's currency for deals with Moscow, according to a Reuters report. One trader said he had never heard of an Indian firm paying in yuan for international trade in his entire 25 year career.
8. A retiree who ditched his job at the age of 26 explained how he built an investment portfolio he could live off of. His annual withdrawal rate remains below the stock market's average growth — and he shared which funds he bought and how he allows his holdings to grow.
9. After an abrupt break in the recent rally, Evercore broke down its top stock picks. Julian Emanual said bear market rallies are treacherous, but they're large and powerful enough for investors to trade profitably. These are the firm's 18 names it's eyeing — and it shared one options trade set to profit.
10. It's starting to look like inflation has finally peaked. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, cooled more than expected in May. Take a look at the new economic data.
Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email [email protected] or tweet @philrosenn).
Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.