- Carl Icahn suggested Russia's armed conflict with Ukraine is less significant to markets than inflation.
- "This market possibly is overreacting to what's going on in Ukraine," he told Fox Business Monday.
- The billionaire investor said inflation will eventually come to "haunt us," but admitted not knowing when.
The biggest headache for financial markets right now isn't the Russia-Ukraine conflict – it's inflation, according to activist investor Carl Icahn.
Global stocks have swung wildly since Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday, as developments around the conflict triggered shifts in mood.
Investors have been assessing the likely economic impact from the war, and from tougher sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over the weekend.
"This market possibly is overreacting to what's going on in Ukraine, but I don't think that's the problem we have," the Icahn Enterprises chairman said Monday on Fox Business' "Varney & Co."
"The problem we really have is a much deeper one, which is inflation."
In January, the US consumer price index rose 7.5% year-on-year, the strongest price growth in 40 years. That red-hot inflation has led the Federal Reserve to prepare to raise interest rates this year.
"I think it is what we have to deal with," Icahn said. "I lived through it in the '70s, and it's not easy to put that genie back into the bottle."
"Eventually, it's going to haunt us — but I can't tell you when," he added, saying anyone trying to predict the exact timing of the market is just wasting time.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has prompted some analysts to consider whether the Fed might rethink its stance on rate hikes and trimming its bond buying.
Measures meant to cut Russia off from the global financial system could halt funds to its oil exporters, which could then feed through into higher energy prices for consumers.
But Icahn, who recently predicted an ugly end to the Fed's money-printing spree, played down the impact of Western sanctions on Russia. He suggested they won't blow up markets — inflation will.
"Look at a macro picture, and if you lived this before, you have to realize that at this point, we're sort of on a precipice," the billionaire investor said.
"When it's gonna happen, though — could be three years, five years."
"A catalyst was this Russian-Ukrainian thing, but I think we should be able to get through that," he added.
The activist investor recently called out "terrible CEOs" in the US for driving economic problems like the widening wealth gap and high inflation.
He isn't alone in frequently cautioning about the consequences of soaring prices. Warren Buffett, Elon Musk, Michael Burry, and Paul Tudor Jones are among other business leaders who have issued inflation warnings.
Icahn said he didn't want to be a markets alarmist since no one can predict when exactly a huge sell-off might take place, but warned the current environment is building towards such a scenario.