- Apple launched its new lineup of iPhone 16s without Apple Intelligence.
- Early preorder data suggested this has slowed the demand for the new phones.
- But some analysts are shrugging those numbers off, confident that AI will drive sales this year.
Apple Intelligence didn't come with the latest iPhone 16 drop on September 20, but that won't matter — analysts are confident that it'll still boost iPhone 16 sales throughout the next 12 months as Apple releases the AI-powered features in multiple software updates.
"Apple Intelligence is still the big driver," Gil Luria, an Apple analyst for D.A. Davidson firm, told Business Insider.
An analysis of early preorder data conducted by BofA Global Research showed the average global shipping times for the iPhone 16 models were shorter than last year's lineup, suggesting lower demand. Apple supply chain expert Ming-Chi Kuo also said that first-weekend pre-order sales were down about 12.7% compared to the iPhone 15 series' first-weekend sales.
However, analysts are giving little weight to the early numbers and are instead looking toward the horizon.
Luria told BI that he puts "very little credence" in third-party reports to gauge iPhone 16 demand, calling it an "exercise in futility."
"It's like trying to weigh an elephant by a few of its hairs," he said.
The analyst compared Apple Intelligence's sales boost potential to the excitement around 5G coverage for iPhone 12 about four years ago.
Luria said that when the iPhone 12 was released with 5G, the feature boosted sales by 40% from the iPhone 11. According to the analyst, the difference now is that Apple Intelligence won't come out of the box.
Luria added that, for Apple to do well this year, the company needs to grow sales by 10%, which doesn't have to happen overnight.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote in a memo that Apple is setting itself up for an "AI-driven iPhone supercycle" that could push the Cupertino-based company into the $4 trillion market cap territory.
"Based on all of our recent Asian supply chain checks this iPhone 16 upgrade cycle will be over 90 million units on initial launch and be up roughly 8 million to 10 million units from iPhone 15 and so far demand is tracking well globally," Ives wrote. "With our estimates of 300 million iPhones of 1.5 billion iPhones not upgrading in 4 years this has created a golden opportunity for Cupertino to push iPhone 16 as the start of what we see as an AI driven supercycle."
A spokesperson for Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Customers lining up outside Apple stores in San Francisco and New York this weekend told BI that Apple Intelligence wasn't the main draw to upgrade their phones.
Ron Witt, a San Francisco resident, told BI that he's mainly interested in the new camera but is also curious about the new AI features that will start rolling out in October.
"Excited isn't the right word," he said. "I think I'm more intrigued."
Luria, the Apple analyst, told BI that Apple Intelligence won't be a popular feature until people can start using it, comparing it to AI's dominance after ChatGPT was released to the public in 2022.
"This a new type of functionality and product where until people start using it, they won't know they need it," he said.