• Mike Murphy, who helped run presidential campaigns for senators John McCain and Mitt Romney, said as many as 30 Republican senators would vote to remove President Trump from the White House if the ballot were kept secret.
  • The impeachment vote will not be a secret ballot, however.
  • That leaves many GOP senators trapped between bad choices: Vote in favor of impeachment and risk the wrath of Trump voters; or vote against impeachment and risk losing moderate voters who are tired of Trump’s antics.

As many as 30 Republican senators would vote for the impeachment of US President Donald Trump over his request for Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, said a top GOP strategist during a cable TV news segment Wednesday night.

Mike Murphy, who helped run presidential campaigns for senators John McCain and Mitt Romney, said during an interview on MSNBC that a Republican senator told him their caucus would likely vote to remove the president if the votes could be kept anonymous.

With 33 Senate seats contested in the 2020 elections, Republican lawmakers risk infuriating pro-Trump voters with a vote to remove the president. At the same time, they could face the wrath of moderate swing voters who are far less supportive of the president.

Of course, there is no prospect of a secret ballot. That means moderate Republican senators, such as Susan Collins of Maine, face a politically brutal choice as they run for reelection.

"These Senate Republicans ... are going to be pinned down to a yes/no answer"

"These Senate Republicans, should the Democrats vote impeachment, which is far more likely than not, are going to be pinned down to a yes/no answer," said Murphy. In the past Murphy has been a fierce critic of the president.

"If they provide cover to Donald Trump for this, a clear violation of his role as president, we're going to lose in Colorado with Cory Gardner. We're going to lose Maine with Susan Collins. We're going to lose Arizona with Martha McSally. And the Democrats will put the Senate very much in play."

Many Republican lawmakers in both chambers stoutly defended Trump during special prosecutor Rober Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. But this week has seen a number of Republicans express concern about the president's behavior in the dealings with Ukraine.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who also faces an election in his home state of Kentucky next year, has been critical of the House decision to move forward on impeachment. But he shocked some observers when he agreed to a demand by Democratic leader Sen. Charles Shumer of New York to call for the release of a still-anonymous whistleblower report detailing an intelligence officials concerns about Trump's behavior.

Privately, Senate Republicans are much less sold on opposing impeachment

Despite McConnell's current stance against impeachment, Murphy said Senate Republicans are privately much less sold on opposing the impeachment effort.

"One Republican senator told me if it was a secret vote, 30 Republican senators would vote to impeach Trump," he claimed.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi this week announced that the House would pursue impeachment after the revelation that Trump implied he wanted cooperation from Ukrainian officials in investigating Biden for his role in supporting the removal of a prosecutor would be tied to the release of a $400 million dollar aid package during a phone call with the new president of Ukraine in July.

The House appears to have enough votes to impeach Trump. In the Senate, however, his actual removal from office would require 67 votes, or support from at least 20 Republican Senators, assuming all 47 Democrats vote to remove.