- Even after solid gains in 2021, investors should expect more upside for the stock market in 2022.
- Bullishness from JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is from earnings momentum and relatively easy Fed policy.
- These are the three reasons why investors should expect continued stock market gains next year, according to JPMorgan.
Even after three consecutive years of stellar stock market returns, JPMorgan's quant guru Marko Kolanovic says investors should be positioned for more of the same in 2022.
In a Wednesday note, he outlined three reasons behind his expectation that equities will continue to rise next year, extending momentum from the S&P 500's year-to-date gain of about 25%.
"We continue to see upside in equities on better than expected earnings growth, China/emerging market backdrop improving, and normalizing consumer spending habits," Kolanovic explained, adding that US corporations could post above-consensus earnings growth of 14%.
"Forward consensus estimates are once again conservative at mid-single-digit growth rates across major markets," he continued. Those tepid earnings estimates don't line up with the strong economy that has taken hold post-pandemic, nor does it reflect elevated household savings or expanding labor markets, according to the note.
And earnings could grow even further if China pivots from its recent regulatory crackdown policy to a more business friendly stance, or if the US-China trade war eases, Kolanovic noted.
But perhaps most important to the potential for positive equity returns in 2022 is Kolanovic's expectation that central banks will continued to be supportive on balance, despite the Fed's Wednesday decision to speed up its monthly bond purchase tapering and the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates on Thursday.
"We expect central bank policy to remain broadly accommodative despite Fed tapering, with an additional $1.1 trillion in global developed markets central bank balance sheet expansion through the end of 2022 and a more dovish Fed relative to current market expectations ahead of US midterm elections," Kolanovic said.
And rising inflation doesn't concern him, as he sees it as more rotational rather than a broad-based acceleration. Part of that is because corporations should step in with supply next year, helping limit further price increases.
"Record corporate liquidity and strong fundamentals should continue to drive capital investment, inventory re-stocking, shareholder return, and M&A activity," Kolanovic explained.
Last month, JPMorgan predicted the S&P 500 would hit 5,000 in the first half of 2022, representing potential upside of 6% from current levels.