We’re one-third of the way through an NBA season unlike any other.
If there has been one through-line this season, it’s been inconsistency: any team is capable of winning on any night, and even the best teams have had puzzling slumps.
To get a feel for where the league’s 30 teams stand, we consulted FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions. Using their Elo system, we ranked teams by FiveThirtyEight’s chances of making the Finals. As of now, FiveThirtyEight gives only 19 teams a 1% or greater chance of making the Finals.
Note: these rankings change. For instance, the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs both fell below 1% chance with Tuesday losses, while the Golden State Warriors’ chances increased with a Tuesday win. Still, the system gives us a good look at who the real contenders are this season.
19. Atlanta Hawks
Record: 11-12,7th in East
Chances of making the Finals: 1%
One thing to know: Clint Capela has been an underrated stabilizing force for the Hawks. The big man is averaging career-highs in rebounding (14.6 per game) and blocks (2.4 per game), while the Hawks have a 104 defensive rating with him on the floor, a mark that would be the best in the league if it were sustained.
Stephen Curry. Carlos Osorio/AP Images
18. Golden State Warriors
Record: 13-12, 8th in West
Chances of making the Finals: 1%
One thing to know: Steph Curry is reasserting himself among the NBA's elite players. His stats are nearly identical to his unanimous MVP season in 2015-16. The Warriors have outscored teams by 50 with him on the floor - a mark closer to a top-10 team than a fringe playoff team.
17. Charlotte Hornets
Record: 12-13, 6th in East
Chances of making the Finals: 2%
One thing to know: The Hornets have to be thrilled with LaMelo Ball's development so far this season. Since Ball became a starter in February, the Hornets have a 116.5 offensive rating, 8th in the league.
16. Portland Trail Blazers
Record: 12-10, 5th in West
Chances of making the Finals: 2%
One thing to know: The Blazers are holding steady amid injuries to C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, and Zach Collins. Damian Lillard, averaging 29 points per game, might be an MVP candidate when - if? - the Blazers finally get healthy.
Jimmy Butler. Nick Wass/AP Images
15. Miami Heat
Record: 10-14, 10th in East
Chances of making the Finals: 2%
One thing to know: The Heat started slow and are trying to climb their way back into the playoff race. Jimmy Butler has played just 12 games but is averaging 20-8-8 in February. Miami is 7-5 with him on the floor.
14. Houston Rockets
Record: 11-13, 11th in West
Chances of making the Finals: 2%
One thing to know: The Rockets have the second-best defense since trading James Harden. Standout rookie Jae'Sean Tate has been a big part of their success, with his ability to swallow up opposing ball-handlers.
13. New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 11-12, 10th in West
Chances of making the Finals: 2%
One thing to know: Amid swirling trade rumors, Lonzo Ball appears to have righted the ship. Over his last nine games, he's averaging 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game while shooting 47% from the field and three. The Pelicans are a +72 with him on the floor over that time.
12. Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 9-10, 11th in West
Chances of making the Finals: 3%
One thing to know: The Grizzlies have had a bizarre season. They began 2-6, won seven in a row, and have since lost four straight, all amid several postponements for COVID-19. Ja Morant is averaging 18 and 7 per game but still seems to be recovering from an ankle injury.
James Harden. Frank Franklin II/AP Images
11. Brooklyn Nets
Record: 14-12, 3rd in East
Chances of making the Finals: 4%
One thing to know: The Nets offense has been explosive since forming their Big 3, but their defense has been porous. They're giving up a league-worst 122.8 points per game since January 13.
10. Indiana Pacers
Record: 12-12, 5th in East
Chances of making the Finals: 5%
One thing to know: The Pacers have cooled considerably since a hot start. They're 4-8 in their last 12 games, have the league's 23rd-ranked defense, and have struggled on the boards, collecting just 70% of opponent misses, third-worst in the league.
9. Phoenix Suns
Record: 14-9, 4th in West
Chances of making the Finals: 5%
One thing to know: The Suns' leap on defense has been the biggest reason for their improvement. They are 5th in defensive rating and give up the second-fewest three-pointers per game.
Nikola Jokic. David Zalubowski/AP Images
8. Denver Nuggets
Record: 12-11, 8th in West
Chances of making the Finals: 6%
One thing to know: Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets in all major statistical categories. If the Nuggets can string together some wins and climb the standings, he could become the MVP favorite.
7. Boston Celtics
Record: 12-11, 4th in East
Chances of making the Finals: 13%
One thing to know: The Celtics are in the mix in the East, but star forwards Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown need help. Boston is a team rumored to be active on the trade market to make some roster upgrades.
6. LA Clippers
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Darren Abate/AP Images
Record: 17-8, 3rd in West
Chances of making the Finals: 14%
One thing to know: Injuries and inconsistency are once again holding the Clippers back somewhat. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have only played together in 18 of the team's 25 games. They're 15-3 with a 21.3 net rating when they share the court.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 18-7, 1st in East
Chances of making the Finals: 15%
One thing to know: Joel Embiid is on pace to have one of the greatest statistical seasons of all-time. He is tied for the lead in PER and is posting a 54-37-85 shooting line, within reach of the coveted 50-40-90 shooting line usually reserved for the NBA's best shooters.
4. Toronto Raptors
Record: 11-13, 8th in East
Chances of making the Finals: 17%
One thing to know: FiveThirtyEight's system is extremely high on the Raptors. Why? It may be because they are 9-5, with the league's seventh-best net rating since beginning the season 2-8. Additionally, five of their losses have been by five points or less.
3. Utah Jazz
Record: 20-5, 1st in West
Chances of making the Finals: 25%
The Jazz. Michael Conroy/AP Images
One thing to know: In a season where teams are struggling with consistency, the Jazz have won 16 of their last 17 games. They're an ace three-point shooting team - 40.2%, second in the NBA - and Rudy Gobert is putting together another excellent season in the middle, ranking third in defensive real plus-minus.
2. Los Angeles Lakers
Record: 19-6, 2nd in West
Chances of making the Finals: 38%
One thing to know: It'd be understandable if the reigning champion Lakers took their foot off the gas after a short offseason, but that hasn't been the case. The Lakers have the No. 1 defense and have given up the fewest three-pointers per game. Meanwhile, LeBron James, authoring another MVP-worthy season, is playing the fewest minutes of his career.
Giannis Antetokounmpo. Jacob Kupferman/AP Images
1. Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 16-8, 2nd in East
Chances of making the Finals: 40%
One thing to know: The Bucks haven't come out like gang-busters like they did the past two seasons, but they are also 14-5 since January 1. After a slow-ish start, Giannis Antetokounmpo is rounding into form, averaging 27 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists per game, and a +106, fifth-best in the NBA in that span.
