- On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced another round of tariffs on Chinese imports.
- According to a report from Credit Suisse, softline retail is one of the industries most exposed to the new tariffs.
- The 10% tax could hurt this year’s earnings-per-share growth of companies that sell consumer goods, according to Credit Suisse. They estimate that department stores would suffer the biggest hit to earnings.
- Here are 16 retailers the firm says are at risk.
- Read more on Markets Insider.
President Donald Trump on Thursday ruffled feathers and sent markets tumbling when he announced that the US would levy a 10% tariff on a final $300 billion worth of goods from China. This means that virtually all Chinese imports would face a tax.
The latest round is set to begin on September 1. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all fell after Trump announced the move on Twitter.The newest round of tariffs add apparel and footwear to the list of consumer goods subject to tax, which already included handbags and accessories, analysts at Credit Suisse wrote in a note August 1.
Credit Suisse estimates that US companies import 10% to 15% of their total cost of goods sold on average from China. They expect the new 10% tariff to drag on company earnings for the rest of the year, and estimate that department stores will take the biggest hit to earnings-per-share growth.
Considering corporate earnings growth is the single biggest driver of stock-price appreciation, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that Trump’s new measures will drag on the shares of those affected.
While some retail companies have moved sourcing out of China due to earlier tariffs, they won't be able to "re-ticket goods already in the marketplace with higher prices," analysts at Credit Suisse wrote. This will add downside risk to consensus estimates until softline retail companies are able to sort out strategies to deal with the added cost of tariffs in the US, the analysts said.
In addition, companies could struggle as consumers face higher prices in goods across the board.
"Separately, the expansion of tariffs to the full list of goods imported to the US from China is likely to put upward pressure on the US consumer's entire basket of goods," the analysts said. "The bigger risk, in our view, is that the consumer may have to opt out of purchases in discretionary categories as they see broad inflation across their household budgets."
Below is a list of 16 softline retailers Credit Suisse say are particularly exposed to Trump's new China tariffs. They're ranked in increasing order of how much their annualized bottom line will suffer.
16. Hanesbrands
Ticker: HBI
% of total COGS imported from China: 2%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.01
Source: Credit Suisse
15. Tapestry
Ticker: TPR
% of total COGS imported from China: 3%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.01
Source: Credit Suisse
14. Under Armour
Ticker: UAA
% of total COGS imported from China: 9%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.03
Source: Credit Suisse
13. Revolve
Ticker: RVLV
% of total COGS imported from China: 13%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.03
Source: Credit Suisse
12. Ulta
Ticker: ULTA
% of total COGS imported from China: 1%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.04
Source: Credit Suisse
11. Capri Holdings
Capri includes brands such as Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors
Ticker: CPRI
% of total COGS imported from China: 4%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.04
Source: Credit Suisse
10. Estee Lauder
Ticker: EL
% of total COGS imported from China: 7%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.04
Source: Credit Suisse
9. Lululemon
Ticker: LULU
% of total COGS imported from China: 6%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.05
Source: Credit Suisse
8. VF Corporation
Ticker: VFC
% of total COGS imported from China: 7%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.06
Source: Credit Suisse
7. Nike
Ticker: NKE
% of total COGS imported from China: 10%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.08
Source: Credit Suisse
6. Nordstrom
Ticker: JWN
% of total COGS imported from China: 6%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.19
Source: Credit Suisse
5. Macy's
Ticker: M
% of total COGS imported from China: 8%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.22
Source: Credit Suisse
4. PVH Corporation
Ticker: PVH
% of total COGS imported from China: 7%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.24
Source: Credit Suisse
3. Ralph Lauren
Ticker: RL
% of total COGS imported from China: 15%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.26
Source: Credit Suisse
2. Gap Inc
Ticker: GPS
% of total COGS imported from China: 17%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.26
Source: Credit Suisse
1. Kohl's
Ticker: KSS
% of total COGS imported from China: 15%
Est. annualized impact on 2019 EPS: -$0.64
Source: Credit Suisse