10 Things in Politics: What the pandemic endgame looks like

Welcome back to 10 Things in Politics. Sign up here to receive this newsletter. Send tips to [email protected] or tweet me at @BrentGriffiths.

Here's what we're talking about:

• US hasn't vaccinated fast enough to avert disaster, so the pandemic endgame isn't here yet
• A federal judge approved punishment for pro-Trump 'big lie' lawyers
• The 9 Georgia prosecutors who are investigating Trump

With Phil Rosen.

1. IS THE END NEAR?: My colleague Hilary Brueck writes this morning that we may be in the most complex part of the coronavirus pandemic. "Vaccines are doing a very good job keeping people alive, out of the hospital, and healthy," she says. "But just because the vaccines work doesn't mean the pandemic is over."

Here's what health experts told her about how the Delta coronavirus variant had and hadn't changed their outlook:

Vaccine goalposts have moved: The US did not vaccinate fast enough to build up a strong base of viral protection before Delta took over. Because of the delay, one of the experts Brueck spoke with, Dr. Paul Offit, said his rough estimate was that at least 90% of the country needed to be protected through some combination of vaccinations and previous infections to develop meaningful herd immunity.

• Delta has changed the two variables of his calculation: Offit says it comes down to the infectiousness of a disease (which Delta changed) and the effectiveness of vaccines (which has also decreased slightly).

So, 2023 may be when things get better worldwide: There will most likely be enough vaccine doses for everyone by the end of 2023. Dr. Anthony Fauci thinks this coming spring is when things could get better in the US.

• Part of the problem is that vaccines aren't being distributed fast enough: Less than 1.5% of people in the world's poorest countries have gotten a single vaccine dose.

Treating this as "a pandemic of the unvaccinated" isn't helping either: It's true that unvaccinated Americans almost entirely account for the rapid rise in hospitalizations and deaths nationwide. But health professionals stress we need to get everyone on board.

• There's concerning data about this: A study of an undervaccinated Colorado county, where only 36% of vaccine-eligible residents got their shots, illustrates how this affects us all. Researchers found vaccines were less than 80% effective against Delta in that area, while in the rest of Colorado, where more residents were vaccinated, the vaccines were nearly 90% effective.

Read more on which activities health experts still won't do as Delta spreads.

2. Security concerns abound for Kabul airport: US diplomats advised people to "immediately" leave specific gates at the Afghan capital's airport because of security threats, CNN reports. A defense official told the network authorities were closely monitoring threats from ISIS-K, a sworn enemy of the Taliban that may try to create mayhem at the already-chaotic airport.

• It's not just Americans: European officials are worried too, the Associated Press reports. A British official warned of an "imminent attack" on the airport.

Other Afghanistan-related headlines:

• As many as 1,500 Americans are still thought to be trying to flee: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the State Department was in contact with 500 of them and was trying to quickly get them to the airport. Many people who fear Taliban retribution are considered likely to be left behind.
• Afghan general says army was "betrayed" by politics: Gen. Sami Sadat, a three-star Afghan general who led the 215 Maiwand Corps, blamed US presidents and his nation's leaders for some of the major issues his troops encountered. More from Sadat's New York Times op-ed article.
• Taliban can't touch nearly $10 billion: That's because most of Afghanistan's central-bank reserves are not actually located in the country - they're said to be found in New York.

3. The 9 Georgia prosecutors who are investigating Trump: A former police officer with over two decades of experience. A recent college graduate. An attorney with expertise in juvenile cases. These are three among several new people working on the criminal investigation into whether Donald Trump violated Georgia election laws while president. The breakdown on Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis' team.

4. Some states are further than others along the path to economic recovery: State unemployment and employment data give us a closer look at how long recovery could take. For some states, such as Montana and North Carolina, recovery could be just a few months away. For others, it may not be as quick. Six charts show when your state's economy could recover.

• What this chart shows: Some states could still be below pre-pandemic levels at the end of next year if they continue to create jobs at the same rate as they have over the past three months.

5. Federal judge approves punishment of "big lie" lawyers: US District Judge Linda V. Parker wrote that the pro-Trump attorneys Sidney Powell and L. Lin Wood, among others, engaged in a "historic and profound abuse of the judicial process" when they sued Michigan officials over false claims they broke state election law. Parker ruled that Powell and Wood would have to pay the defendants' legal fees and face sanctions over unethical behavior. More on the scathing decision and what it means for other pending cases.

6. Texas governor bans vaccine mandates: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's move signals the GOP's increasing hostility to such mandates. Under the ban, which affects mostly governmental or government-funded organizations, private businesses could not require customers to show proof of vaccination status but could require their employees to get protected, The Texas Tribune reports. Abbott's order applies to FDA-approved vaccines, and it came just two after the agency issued full approval for Pfizer and BioNTech's shot.

• Some businesses are moving forward with requirements: Delta Air Lines plans to soon make unvaccinated employees pay $200 more a month for health insurance. And Carnival won't allow unvaccinated people on board unless they have a doctor's note. Goldman Sachs will reportedly require all staff members to take a weekly COVID-19 test.

7. China sought to show up Vice President Kamala Harris: She was en route to Vietnam to donate 1 million COVID-19 vaccines, but then China one-upped the US delegation and offered 2 million shots. China had a diplomat meet with Vietnam's prime minister just before the vice president could arrive. The one-upmanship marks the latest competition between the two global powers. Read Harris' latest remarks on the situation.

8. Rep. Devin Nunes' brother says he has "no idea" who's paying for libel lawsuit against political journalist: The comment from Anthony Nunes III, the congressman's brother, was included in a legal brief filed in federal court Monday by lawyers representing a journalist and Esquire's parent company. Nunes is suing over a 2018 article's claim that the family employed unauthorized immigrants at its Iowa dairy farm. A poorly redacted court filing reveals a numerous details about the case.

9. Movie-theater big wig says studios will "never get their money back" if they delay films again: John Fithian, the CEO of the National Association of Theatre Owners, has been an outspoken opponent of studios that simultaneously release movies in theaters and on streaming services. Fithian warned Hollywood against further delaying releases amid an already packed calendar of blockbusters that were pushed during the pandemic. More from his Insider interview, including how the theater industry will approach vaccine mandates.

10. A "Hamilton" actor is ready to return to the stage: Fergie Philippe, pictured above right, hasn't performed on Broadway in 18 months. He left New York City early during the pandemic to live with his mother in Miami, where he taught classes during the day and delivered food at night. After enduring last year's stage-show shutdown, Philippe told Insider how he was making his comeback - along with Broadway.

Today's trivia question: An MLB game was televised for the first time on this date in 1939. Can you name either of the teams? Email your guess and a suggested question to me at [email protected].

• Yesterday's answer: Both Presidents Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt have four national park sites bearing their names, the most of anyone.