Happy Wednesday, readers. Russia has been flirting with a default for several months now, but a new development may push the nation over the edge.
Here we go.
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1. The US is expected to fully block Russia's dollar bond payments, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
The Treasury is expected to let a key sanction waiver expire on May 25 — the exception that has allowed Russia to continue paying investors and skirt default.
Once it expires, the odds of Russia defaulting on its debt will surge.
What's more, G7 and EU countries are weighing seizures of Russian central bank assets for Ukraine aid.
But the Kremlin has rebuked the effort, calling it "illegal, blatant and of course requiring an appropriate response…It would be, in fact, outright theft."
In addition to facing a historic default, two top oil execs say Russia will likely be shut out permanently from global energy markets. The shock of another war on European soil will be a wake up call for the continent, one executive said.
"What has happened is so shocking, that I think they will not be lulled into complacency around acquiring energy from Russia in the future."
Still, amid war and sanctions, smaller, under-the-radar companies have emerged since other major carriers have shunned Russian supplies. Among them is a little-known company called Bellatrix. The company has transported nearly 3 million barrels of Russian oil in May alone.
In other news:
2. US futures fell early Wednesday, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will support hiking interest rates until inflation retreats. Walmart dropped more than 11% Tuesday in the retail giant's largest single-day plunge since 1987. Here are the latest moves.
3. On deck today: Tencent Holdings, Cisco, and Lowe's, all reporting. Plus, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors are meeting to discuss the Ukraine crisis and economic stablity, growth, and recovery.
4. The chief market strategist at a $5 billion firm shared which stocks to buy that can tactically play the market. These picks, she explained, can yield long-and short-term gains ahead of a 2023 recession. See her list of 7 stocks.
5. China just saw a record bond sell-off. Now it's main trading platform isn't publishing foreign debt trades, according to Bloomberg. The China Foreign Exchange Trade System hasn't published any data since May 11.
6. The SEC just charged a US subsidiary of investment giant Allianz in a multi-billion dollar fraud scheme that targeted pensions and other investors. Regulators also sued three men and accused them of securities fraud. Here's what you want to know.
7. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman says Terra's luna sounds like a pyramid scheme. Following the collapse of the Terra stablecoin, Ackman warned that the entire crypto industry will be destroyed if it doesn't clamp down on similar projects. Read what else Ackman said.
8. These 10 COVID-beneficiary stocks are trading at a "meaningful discount." They are well-positioned, Morgan Stanley said, to outperform long-term, even though investors are ditching pandemic darlings. Here are the firm's top picks.
9. Investors have "bolted the lifeboats to the Titanic," one top fund manager said. Salem Abraham can't rule out the scenario where stocks drop 25% in one day. These two risks are what have him most concerned.
10. The world's two top currencies are on the verge of parity for the first time in 20 years. An economist told Insider that it signals a lack of faith in the euro area economy. See why he thinks parity could be reached within a month.
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Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email [email protected] or tweet @philrosenn.) Edited by Hallam Bullock (tweet @hallam_bullock) in London.